Tag Archives: forecast

April 2013 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Continuing Economic Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.6% in April to 95.0 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up, and one month is not a trend. This … Continue reading

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March 2013 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Slowing Economic Growth

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in March to 94.7 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up, and one month is not a trend. This … Continue reading

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What About a Market Correction?

Written by Steven Hansen This week, Marc Faber (aka Dr. Doom) stated on CNBC: I don’t think the market is as overbought as it was in ’87, so I don’t expect a crash. But I think for the time being, … Continue reading

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Underlying Trends Say The Economy Is Growing Faster

Written by Steven Hansen Last week, my weekend “think piece” showed that the unadjusted data was not (yet) confirming an economic expansion.  This week I shift to Econintersect‘s economic forecast which was published today: The index is now forecasting a … Continue reading

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February 2013 Leading Economic Index Continues to Forecast Economic Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5% in February to 94.8 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value continues to slowly trend up. This index is designed to forecast the economy … Continue reading

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January 2013 Leading Economic Index Points to a Slow Economic Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.2% in January to 94.1 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up. This index is designed to forecast the economy … Continue reading

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December 2012 Leading Economic Index Suggests Economic Growth Might Improve

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5% in December to 93.9 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been in a tight range for most of 2012 until this growth … Continue reading

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November 2012 Leading Economic Index Projects Weak Growth

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2% in November to 95.8 (2004 = 100).  Overall, the index value has been in a tight range for most of 2012 implying growth is … Continue reading

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October 2012 Leading Economic Index Rises Slightly

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.2% in October to 96.0 (2004 = 100). Please note this improvement is based on revised values for September which were originally stated at 95.9 … Continue reading

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September 2012 Leading Economic Index Forecasting a Weak Economy

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.6% in September to 95.9 (2004 = 100).  Please note this improvement is based on revised values for August which were originally stated at 95.7 … Continue reading

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August 2012 Leading Economic Index Softens

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in August to 95.7 (2004 = 100). This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance – and is still forecasting … Continue reading

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July 2012 Leading Economic Index Recovers Projecting Economic Growth

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. grew 0.3% in July (reversing last month’s decline) to 95.8 (2004 = 100). This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The … Continue reading

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June 2012 Leading Economic Indicator Forecasting Softening Economy

Written by Steven Hansen Warning: This post contains more soft economic forecast news. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3% in June to 95.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in May. This index … Continue reading

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May 2012 Leading Economic Indicator Forecasts No Downturn In 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in April to 95.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in April. This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in … Continue reading

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Leading Economic Indicator Falters in April 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in April to 95.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3% increase in March, and a 0.7% increase in February. The market was expecting an … Continue reading

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Leading Economic Indicator Improves in March 2012

Written by Steven Hansen This is the fourth month of the “new and improving” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and might prove to be a viable real time long range forecasting tool.  Only in hindsight years from now … Continue reading

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ECRI: Warns Against a Buy-and-Hold Mentality

by Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI Chief Operations Officer Editor’s Note: This is Lakshman’s presentation notes and slides from the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference held this past week in Frankfurt, Germany.  Lakshman has advised Econintersect: “By the way, at the conference in … Continue reading

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February 2012 LEI Says Economy Will Improve At Least Through Summer

Written by Steven Hansen This is the third month of the “new and improving” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and might end up being a very viable real time long range forecasting tool. The Conference Board Leading Economic … Continue reading

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January 2012 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Improving Economy

This is the second month of the “new” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and after a month of review this index appears to be a significant tool useful for long-range outlook economic forecasts. The Conference Board Leading Economic … Continue reading

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Big Changes Come to the December 2011 Leading Economic Index

Based on criticisms of their “rocket ship” index, the Conference Board made sweeping changes to their Leading Economic Index. The changes are as dramatic as night-and-day. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in … Continue reading

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