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Tag Archives: Federal Reserve
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (7) – “Get Out of Jail”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4)[i] and (5),[ii] to confront the threat of the deteriorating bad mortgage vintages – “the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government were observed to be running swiftly into the housing … Continue reading
Terminal Velocity (9) – “Helicopter Take-off”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com From Terminal Velocity (3) – “The Pyramid Scheme”[i]: Reading between the lines, it is clear that the Fed intends to maintain a large balance sheet of assets for some time; even after interest rates have … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, money, money and banking
Tagged Adam Whitehead, BEA, China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recovery
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Initial Claims Not Great but Not as Bad as Claimed
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The media exhibited much consternation today as economists’ consensus guess on first time unemployment claims turned out to be way too optimistic this week. That raised two questions in my mind. Was the number … Continue reading
Posted in Employment
Tagged dol, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Schizophrenic U.S. Housing Market
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (Part 6) “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com Click to enlarge We thought it would be amusing to start this discussion with the latest “Smoke … Continue reading
Self-defeating Austerity Shocks
by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov, Voxeu.org This article was originally published by Voxeu.org (May 3, 2013) Europe’s austerity-first approach has triggered research-based efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of debt-reduction strategies. This column, based on a US empirical study, suggests … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fuad Hasanov, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery, Reda Cherif
1 Comment
April 2013 Industrial Production Soft – But Still In a Growth Trend
Written by Steven Hansen The headlines say Industrial Production (IP) declined 0.5% in April 2013 and up 1.9% year-over-year. Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP was also showed a decline of 0.5% month-over-month but the year-over-year was … Continue reading
What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk?
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com Note from dshort: I’ve updated this commentary to include the latest labor force data in May’s release of the April employment report. Every Thursday I post an update on weekly unemployment claims shortly after the … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, GDP
Tagged Doug Short, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, recession, recovery, unemployment
3 Comments
Retail Sales Stay Right on Trend but Economists Get It Wrong Again
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Retail sales grew modestly and on trend in April. There was no evidence of either a slowing economy or one that is overheating and about to cause conventional inflation measures to move higher. At … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Retail & Business Sales, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Economy, Federal Reserve, gasoline, GDP, Lee Adler, retail sales, trade balance
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Housing Smoke and Mirrors (5) – “Zombie Fed”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4), it was suggested that the bad eggs in the 2005 and 2009 Mortgage Vintages were hatching; and creating a growing systemic threat. Click to enlarge The Federal Reserve and … Continue reading
Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
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US Consumers Keep Spending Despite Reduced Pay
by Warren Mosler This article was originally published by Mosler Economics (Apr. 29, 2013) This is the current thinking, but the pieces don’t add up? Hoping I’m being too negative here… Comments below:
The Liquidity Trap In the IS/MY Model (“Sitges Equation”)
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 I have recently built a small model which builds on the “Sitges” balance of payments identity. “Sitges” – originally a little town close to Barcelona – helps me to remember that the change in debt of … Continue reading
Posted in Government, Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, government spending, inflation
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Bubbly Stock Prices Running Away From Improving Jobless Claims
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The trend toward fewer initial unemployment claims continued this week at a pace near the best levels of the past several years. However, spurred on by QE, bubbling stock prices are increasingly ahead of … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, stock markets
Tagged Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, unemployment
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Austerity and Growth Perspectives: Europe, the IMF, China, and the US
Written by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Over the last two decades, the trade-offs between more rapid economic growth and the need for governments to keep their financial houses in order has been a topic of worldwide debate. Controversy … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, GDP, International Economic data
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Elliott Morss, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery
1 Comment
More Bad News On Dying US Manufacturing
More Bad News On Dying US Manufacturing- Excise Taxes Drop, But Markets Have Reason To Party On by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner [While US tax collections on everything went gangbusters in April, absolutely through the roof, there was one … Continue reading
March 2013 Consumer Credit Growth Weaker Than Expected
Written by Steven Hansen The headline said: Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-3/4 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit was little changed, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8 percent. In … Continue reading
March Factory Order Rebound Doesn’t Change Dismal Trend
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner New factory orders (actual, adjusted for inflation and not seasonally adjusted), which is a broader measure than durable goods orders because it includes non-durables, dropped 3.3% on a year to year basis in March. … Continue reading
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4) – “The Zombie in the Room”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (3)[i] it was suggested that there were some anomalies, in the general pattern of improving mortgage delinquencies, that deserved closer scrutiny.
Payrolls Gain But QE Has No Impact On Growth Rate
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 165,000 in April nonfarm payrolls, beating the consensus estimates of 140,000 to 155,000 from surveys of economists by mainstream media organizations. Surprise, surprise (not) … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Personal Income and Consumption, Taxation, macroeconomics
Tagged BLS, Economy, employment, energy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Fed Mortgage Subsidy Drives Buying Panic In Existing Homes To Bubble Levels
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The NAR Pending Home Sales data for March is a measure of current sales as of the date of the contract. It’s the closest thing we have to a real time measure of sales … Continue reading
