Tag Archives: Europe

Stratfor: Beyond the Post-Cold War World, Balancing Economic and Military Power

By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor An era ended when the Soviet Union collapsed on Dec. 31, 1991. The confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union defined the Cold War period. The collapse of Europe framed that … Continue reading

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Stratfor: Europe, Unemployment and Instability

By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor The global financial crisis of 2008 has slowly yielded to a global unemployment crisis. This unemployment crisis will, fairly quickly, give way to a political crisis. The crisis involves all three of the major … Continue reading

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Stratfor: UK Moving Away from the European Union?

By George Friedman, Stratfor Founder and Chief Executive Officer British Prime Minister David Cameron will deliver a speech in London on Jan. 23, during which he will discuss the future of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union. Excerpts … Continue reading

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Stratfor: 2013 Is A European Decision Year

By George Friedman, Stratfor Founder and Chief Executive Officer The end of the year always prompts questions about what the most important issue of the next year may be. It’s a simplistic question, since every year sees many things happen … Continue reading

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The Myth of Austerity

by Philipp Bagus, Mises.org Many politicians and commentators such as Paul Krugman claim that Europe’s problem is austerity, i.e., there is insufficient government spending. The common argument goes like this: Due to a reduction of government spending, there is insufficient … Continue reading

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Accounting for the Environment in Europe: Progress and Lessons

by Carolynn Look, Institute for Advanced Development Studies A kilo of tomatoes in Spain typically costs around €1.99. This price includes the efforts of the farmer who grew the tomatoes, transportation costs, and the work of the retailer. What it … Continue reading

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Stratfor: Gaza, Catalonia and Romantic Nationalism

By George Friedman Last week was spent obsessed with Gaza. In the end, nothing changed. A war was fought without an Israeli ground assault but with massive air and rocket attacks on both sides. Israel did not have the appetite … Continue reading

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Stratfor: Regrouping American Foreign Policy

By George Friedman President Barack Obama has won re-election. However, in addition to all of the constraints on him that I discussed last week, he won the election with almost half the people voting against him. His win in the … Continue reading

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Is April 2012 the Start Date of the Recession in Europe?

Written by Steven Hansen One of my favorite tools for monitoring the health of an economy is imports.   Imports naturally increase when the economy expands, and contracts as the economy recesses.   Most pundits watch trade balances as it is felt … Continue reading

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Keeping Banks (not Greece) From Failing Is the Real Eurozone Crisis

Written by Steven Hansen Over the last several weeks, JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)  has remained in the headlines after suffering trading losses tied to the bank’s now infamous “London Whale” with losses at  $7 billion more or less … Continue reading

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Dealing with the Global Financial Crisis: Focus Europe

Where are the Super Heroes? Written by Macrotides In our article in March we discussed the low level of volatility in the stock market, and wondered if the perception that the European debt crisis was contained was correct. We didn’t … Continue reading

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Coincident Data Providing Confirmation of Improving Economy

Written by Steven Hansen On Friday on CNBC, ECRI renewed their recession call – now saying a recession should hit by mid-year 2012.   Supporting evidence for this call was based on coincident data’s growth rate-of-change was falling to historical recession … Continue reading

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Real State of the Union: A Prisoner of Housing?

Can the USA economy really grab hold as long as the housing market remains weak?   This past week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at his press conference following the FOMC meeting acknowledged housing was the primary reason the current economic situation … Continue reading

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Comparative Risk: Costa Concordia, Fukushima, Europe

We make decisions daily in our investing life to make money knowing that there is a potential to lose money.  Seldom do we anticipate the possibility of losing the entire investment, and when we do consider this possibility, generally we … Continue reading

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Is Decoupling Possible in a Global Economy?

by Macrotides An improvement in U.S. economic data in the fourth quarter has convinced many investment strategists that the U.S. will continue to grow 2% to 3% in 2012, absent a Lehman Brothers type of crisis in Europe.  After all, … Continue reading

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China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely

I continue to be a skeptic of the pundits rhetoric that a European recession could lead to a true contraction of the economies of China and India. This is unlikely, and bordering on impossible. China has a “command” (top down) … Continue reading

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2012 Predictions: Just a Dice Roll

Looking back at Econintersect’s 2011 predictions, I was rather pleased with their accuracy.  Predictions are not to be taken that seriously as they are an extrapolation of today’s knowledge – and introduce significant opinion to reach a particular conclusion. The … Continue reading

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USA: Headwinds for 2012 and Beyond

A rather frightening and somber forecast for the USA in the years to come was published by Econintersect this past week – USA in 2012/2016: An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country. In a nutshell, the European think tank LEAP/Europe 2020 sees: … Continue reading

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Arguing For the Coming Recession

No data in the grouping of economic indicators which historically lead the economy (and which Econintersect follows) is predicting an economic downturn. I considered listing the folks who think a recession is coming (including ECRI and John Hussman) with those … Continue reading

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Fixing the Eurozone – Old Fashioned Inflation and Deflation

For the past two weeks, my weekend summaries have focused on Europe.  The reason is simple – events in Europe are and will continue to affect the global business, financial and economic systems. Most economic theory subscribes to the notion … Continue reading

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