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Tag Archives: euro
Stratfor: UK Moving Away from the European Union?
By George Friedman, Stratfor Founder and Chief Executive Officer British Prime Minister David Cameron will deliver a speech in London on Jan. 23, during which he will discuss the future of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union. Excerpts … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, UK, aa syndication, macroeconomics
Tagged common market, David Cameron, euro, Europe, export, George Friedman, imports, Stratfor, UK
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European Banking Union Proposal
The sovereign debt crisis has revealed severe flaws in the EU internal market. Common monetary policy has not been accompanied by the transfer of authority to supervise banks and risks of banks and states have become dangerously intertwined. This column summarises the proposal of the German Council of Economic Experts for a full banking union which aim at correcting these deficits. Continue reading
Analysis: Poland’s Balancing Act
By George Friedman, Stratfor Polish national strategy pivots around a single, existential issue: how to preserve its national identity and independence. Located on the oft-invaded North European Plain, Poland’s existence is heavily susceptible to the moves of major Eurasian powers. … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged Economy, EU, Euopean Union, euro, Eurozone, George Friedman, poland, Stratfor
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The Great Debate©: Are There Really Any Choices for the Euro?
by Elliott Morss Editor’s introduction: The two sides of this debate are joined by Anders Åslund and Elliott Morss. Åslund has published a paper at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in which he thoroughly documents why he thinks there … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, Great Debate©
Tagged Anders Aslund, ECB, Elliott Morss, euro, European Central bank, Great Debate
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Nothing has Changed for Greece
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Last fall, I said that Greece and the other “weak sisters” should leave the Eurozone. My argument was: the weak sisters (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) cannot compete with Germany; they need currencies … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged break up the euro, Elliott Morss, euro, Eurozone, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, weak sisters
2 Comments
Spain and The Runaway Euro Bailout Train
By EconMatters Spain finally bowed to the rising interest rates and the billions of euros worth of bad loans at Spain’s regional governments to ask for a loan. After emergency talks between Euro Zone finance ministers on Saturday, Spain will get up … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged bailout, debt crisis, EconMatters, EU, euro, Euro bonds, euro rescue, Eurozone, Spain
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The Big Easing
by Daniel Gros, Project Syndicate More than three years after the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, who is doing more to bring about economic recovery, Europe or the United States? The US Federal Reserve has completed two rounds of … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, Daniel Gros, EU, euro, Eurozone, growth in Europe, long-term refinancing operation, LTRO
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Analysis of the Pain in Spain
by Michael Pettis Normally I don’t like to write about European prospects in the midst of a very rough patch in the market because in that case there isn’t much I can say that isn’t already being said. I find … Continue reading
Lots Of News, Signifying Nothing New
I don’t think there is a whole lot to say about this week’s numbers beyond what I have been saying for the past several months. Nothing substantial has really changed. China’s external account is worsening, and will continue to worsen since global imbalances have no choice but to adjust. Growth in China is slowing but remains relatively rapid, and as unhealthy as ever, but there is little likely to be done to improve the quality of growth until 2013. Beijing will continue veering back and forth between stomping on the credit accelerator and stomping on the credit brakes as the only way they can manage the economy. Continue reading
Posted in China
Tagged central banking, China, ECB, euro, Eurozone, michael pettis, PBOC
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How Germany Did Not Profit From The Euro
by Dr. Dirk Ehnst
Often in articles on the euro zone crisis I read things like this (written by Michael Pettis):
“In the end this is Germany’s crisis to resolve, not China’s. Germany has benefited tremendously from the euro. Nearly all of its growth in the past decade can be explained by its rising trade surplus which, given monetary policy driven almost exclusively by the needs of slow-growing and consumption-repressed Germany, came at the expense of the rest of Europe.”
I think this is basically right, but on the other hand misleading. Let me point out two things. Continue reading
Germany Must Do It, Not China
by Michael Pettis
I have already discussed last month why I think the desperate attempts by Europe to get China and other Asian and BRIC countries to bail out the weak sovereign borrowers is absurd, but the topic has become so important in the past two weeks, at least judging by the number of calls I have received from journalists, that I thought I would reproduce a discussion I recently had in a forum among a number of China specialists (the forum is Rick Baum’s estimable ChinaPol).
We were discussing an article that recently appeared in the New York Times calling for a Chinese bailout of Europe. According to the author, Arvind Subramanian, at the Peterson Institute, “Europe is drowning and needs a lifeline.” That lifeline is effectively a bail-out package from China. Continue reading
Posted in China, macroeconomics
Tagged China, euro, European politics, Eurozone, michael pettis, sovereign debt
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Notes on European and USA Bank Exposures
by Elliott Morss There is a lot of talk about bank contagion and exposures resulting from the Eurozone crisis. There is much less talk about the high unemployment rates and other hardships being forced on the weaker Eurozone countries by … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Business News and Analysis
Tagged bank, claims, crisis, derivatives, ECB, Elliott Morss, euro, european, foreign, repo
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The Dance of the Weak Sisters – Part 2
Why Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain Should Leave the Eurozone
by Elliott Morss
In my last article, I argued that Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain should leave the Eurozone. Why? Because, at the € exchange rate they must accept as long as they are in it, their costs are too high. Their costs being too high means their unemployment rates will remain at unacceptable levels and their trade deficits will continue. This article takes the form of an open letter to the Presidents and Finance Ministers of these four countries. Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged currency, current account, debt, default, Elliott Morss, EU, euro, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, weak sisters
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The Dance of the Weak Sisters – Part 1
Why Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain Should Leave the Eurozone by Elliott Morss Introduction Monnet’s original conception for the European Common Market sounded sensible: as separate nations, we have little power, but together, we will be a significant global/political force. … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged currency, current account, debt, Elliott Morss, EU, euro, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain
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Greece: The Sudden Stop That Wasn’t
by Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann
With economists’ eyes fixed squarely on Greece, this column tries to solve a puzzle. Since 2008, tens of billions of euros have fled Greek bank accounts. Yet somehow the country still has a current-account deficit. Where has this money come from?
Normally, things don’t work like this for nations in crisis. Greece has experienced severe capital flight yet its current-account deficit has remained almost unchanged; its international reserves are little changed. On net, €24 billion of private capital left the country between 2008 and 2010, but Greece still managed to accumulate a €85 billion current-account deficit – 12% of GDP.
Where has the money come from? The answer can be found by looking at the balance of payments statistics. Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Eurozone, International Economic data
Tagged Aaron Tornell, account deficit, bailout, ECB, euro, Eurozone, Frank Westermann, Greece, IFO Institute, IMF
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Portfolio: Preparing for Greece’s Failure
The financial news of the week again is about the eurozone and we are seeing lots of entities come up with lots of possible solutions about how to solve the eurozone problem. They all of course rest on what to do about Greece. The problem is, they are coming from the wrong angle. From STRATFOR’s point of view, Greece does not have a particularly bright future as a state before the eurozone crisis is taken into account. Continue reading
Posted in macroeconomics
Tagged bailouts, default, euro, Eurozone, France, Greece, Italy, NATO, Portugal, Realpolitik, Stratfor, Turkey
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Estonia’s Manipulated Euro Adoption
Price stability conditions needed for entry to the euro were not met by Estonia unless some extreme manipulations are practiced. Continue reading
The Euro and the Great Currency War
The Euro is functioning as a backed currency in a fiat world. The currency is operating as a storehouse of value – and does little to benefit the economies. Continue reading
The Rough Politics of European Adjustment
No fiscally fragmented currency union has ever survived a real global liquidity contraction. Can a precident be set now? The ghosts of extreme politics on the continent give pause. Continue reading
