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Tag Archives: economic forecast
Economic Forecast May 2013: Stable Growth But ….
Written by Steven Hansen Our May 2013 Economic Forecast continues to say the economy will be expanding at a rate similar to April. This month the forecast is accompanied by some economic concerns – and although many data points are … Continue reading
What’s Going to Happen to the Fed’s Balance Sheet?
by James D. Hamilton, Econbrowser.com Originally published at Econbrowser 17 March 2013. The Federal Reserve has increased its assets from $900 billion in 2007 to over $3,150 billion and still climbing today. On the liabilities side of the Fed’s balance … Continue reading
Posted in Federal Reserve, US Treasury, money
Tagged economic forecast, Economy, fed balance sheet, Federal Reserve, GDP, James D. Hamilton
2 Comments
Economic Forecast April 2013: Light At End of the Tunnel?
Written by Steven Hansen Our April 2013 Economic Forecast says we are at the end of the tunnel, and in the coming months should begin to see real economic expansion IF current trends continue. The index is now forecasting a … Continue reading
Economic Forecast March 2013: Improves But Not Great Yet
Written by Steven Hansen Last month, our economic forecast was degraded by supply chain shortcomings – and this has now been alleviated in the last 30 days causing the March 2013 Economic Index to improve relative to the previous month. … Continue reading
Economic Forecast January 2013: Weak Expansion but Hints of Improvement
Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect continues to forecast a “less good” economy using real time non-monetary pulse points. The index is forecasting weak economic expansion for Main Street – and remains clearly in a declining growth trend (positive growth, negative … Continue reading
Economic Forecast December 2012: Main Street Continues to Cool
Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect continues to forecast a “less good” economy. Econintersect‘s Index utilizes real time non-monetary pulse points. It is our position that the data we use for forecasting was not effected by Hurricane Sandy. The indicators Econintersect … Continue reading
Economic Forecast November 2012: Still Predicts Moderate Growth but …
Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect November 2012 economic forecast outlook recovered slightly following last month’s free fall. The indicators Econintersect uses to forecast remain mixed, and several are at 2012 low points. The index is barely forecasting moderate economic … Continue reading
Economic Forecast October 2012: Huge Decline, Fundamentals Degrading
Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect‘s October 2012 economic forecast is relatively nasty after September’s upbeat forecast. Let me start by saying one month is not a trend, but the degradation in the indicators Econintersect believes are intuitive were very large … Continue reading
Economic Forecast September 2012: Actually Improving
Written by Steven Hansen The economy is always in a state of flux. Writing this summary forces a review of the economic dynamics once a month. This September forecast even surprised me to a degree – as the Econintersect Economic … Continue reading
Economic Forecast July 2012: Growth Continues to Hang In
Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect July 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to show economic expansion – with the rate of growth improving marginally in this forecast. The news out there is not good – Europe in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession, recovery, Steven Hansen
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Economic Forecast Is for Little Change in June 2012
Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect June 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to show economic expansion – with the rate of growth slowing marginally in this forecast. At the moment, two of the major leading economic indicators … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession, recovery, Steven Hansen
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May 2012 Economic Forecast: Continued Expansion Predicted
Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect May 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to show economic expansion – and the dip in the rate of growth rebounded somewhat in this forecast. As of the end of April 2012, … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession, recovery, Steven Hansen
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April 2012 Economic Forecast: The Roller Coaster Continues
Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect April 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to improve – but the improvement will be less good than previous months. Using one word to describe April growth forecast is “weak”. As of … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession, recovery, Steven Hansen
2 Comments
March 2012 Economic Forecast: No Recession In Sight
Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect March 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to improve at near the same growth rate as February. As of 29 February 2012, rail transport was not growing year-over-year – and this raises … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession, recovery, Steven Hansen
1 Comment
General Improvement in February 2012 Economic Forecast
Econintersect‘s February 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to improve. The forecast remains for moderate economic growth – February’s growth is projected to be better better than January’s. As of 31 January 2012, there are no major recessionary … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession, recovery, Steven Hansen
3 Comments
Econintersect Forecast: Improving Conditions in January 2012
Econintersect‘s January 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals have improved. The forecast remains for weak but with slowly improving economic growth – January’s growth is projected to be better better than December’s. As of 31 December 2011, there are … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession watch, Steven Hansen
3 Comments
December 2011 Economic Forecast Improved
Econintersect‘s December 2011 economic index shows the underlying economic fundamentals have begun to improve. The forecast remains for weak but slowly improving economic growth.. As of 30 November 2011, there are no major recessionary elements in any of the coincident … Continue reading
November 2011 Economic Forecast Continues to Show Weakening Growth
Economic weakness continues in Econintersect‘s November 2011 economic forecast but the underlying economic fundamentals remain more positive than negative. As of 31October2011, there are no major recessionary elements in any of the coincident data. As detailed in Searching For a … Continue reading
Searching For a Recession
Yesterday, Econintersect removed the recession flags we had raised for imports and equities. As the economy – measured by our forward looking indicator – is close to recession, we continually look for clues in the coincident indicators. Most of the … Continue reading
Posted in economic predictions
Tagged economic forecast, ECRI, employment, industrial production, ISM, manufacturing, retail sales, Steven Hansen
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ECRI Calls Recession A Certainty – Our October 2011 Forecast Not Yet Recessionary
Our Economic Forecast is near contraction – but the last 2 months has shown marginally improving data. But ECRI has called a recession. Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast
Tagged contraction, Econintersect Economic Index, economic forecast, EEI, recession watch, Steven Hansen
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