Tag Archives: depression

Joe Sixpack’s Recession – Part II

Written by Steven Hansen Last week I presented a picture of Joe’s portion of the economy being in a recession.  Richjoy403 wondered: ….. do you suppose there could be relevant factors affecting Joe’s ‘world’ that are not reflected in your … Continue reading

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Joe Sixpack’s Economy Is Already in a Recession

Written by Steven Hansen It comes as no surprise to me that many believe we are in a recession. Joe Sixpack’s portion of the economy sucks (e.g. not good, for those who are uncertain what “sucks” means). The metric used … Continue reading

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The Great Debate©: Will the U.S. Mirror Japan?

by Guest Author Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives Larry Summers (left) and Paul Krugman (right) may share ideological leanings, but they disagree sharply about our economic prospects. Both agree that political gridlock is responsible for the failure to grow our economy, … Continue reading

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Economy: Sick but not Dying

Last week I stated that “other than a horribly weak economy, there are no major signs indicating an outright contraction.“    This needs to be expanded as an economy is not a homogeneous mechanism that ebbs and flows in unison.  There … Continue reading

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April 2011 Economic Forecast: Likely At Sub-Cycle Peak

The economy will continue to expand in April 2011, but there is every indication that the rate of growth will be nearly flat. Continue reading

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March 2011 Economic Forecast: GDP Is Disconnected from the Real Economy

The “real” economy – the economy of Joe Sixpack continues to expand. The strength of this growth is considered moderate with positive underlying trend lines. Putting this into perspective – the economy is likely improving on a per capita basis. Continue reading

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Normalized GDP is the “Real” Growth

Normalizing GDP to population gives a much more meaningful description of the business cycle, especially for the recovery phase. Continue reading

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Business Cycle Drivers

The primary driver of recovery and expansion is demand. There are many traps related to monetary issues in the down portion of the business cycle, but ultimately monetary factors are symptoms of depression and not the primary drivers. Continue reading

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Depression: The Forgotten Part of the Business Cycle

Economic robustness is reflected by the strength of recovery. In the business cycle, recession plus recovery defines a depression of economic activity below prior levels. Continue reading

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“Slow Economic Growth for Years” Forecasts Will Prove Too Optimistic

The vast majority of economists, market professionals and other commentators currently believe that we will be experiencing a long period of slow economic growth. Will this consensus scenario actually happen? My analysis indicates that it will not, unfortunately.
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Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

It could take up to six years for the national average home price to reach a bottom. More rapid growth in employment is needed to avoid a drawn out depression for housing. Continue reading

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Economy and GDP

Economic releases w/e 27 August 2010 continue to paint an economy with slowing but positive growth. GDP for 2Q2010 was revised downward to 1.6% annualized. Continue reading

Posted in ECRI WLI, Federal Reserve, GDP, Weekly Economic Summary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment