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Tag Archives: default
Debt, Investments, and Dangerous Addictions: A Tale of Four Countries
Written by Elliott Morss In working overseas and doing research on countries, I have always been struck by striking differences and what explains them. Here, I look at four countries: China, Greece, Japan, and the US. Why these countries? The … Continue reading
Posted in International Economic data
Tagged austerity, China, current account, debt, default, deficit, Elliott Morss, Greece, Japan, smoking
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Update: Greece, Eurozone and the IMF
by Elliott Morss Earlier, I noted there were two parts to IMF Stand-By Program for Greece: austerity and increasing its competitiveness. However, by the beginning of 2012, the IMF had concluded that the austerity part of its plan for Greece … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged default, deficit, Elliott Morss, EU, Eurozone, Greece, growth, haircut, IMF, sovereign debt
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Comparing U.S. and Euro Crises
by Elliott Morss Introduction The best weather forecast comes from watching the trends: if the chance of rain increases as you get closer to the day of interest, it will probably rain…. So I start by looking at what has … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, default, deficit, Elliott Morss, EU, Eurozone, growth, haircut, sovereign debt, unemployment
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The Dance of the Weak Sisters – Part 2
Why Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain Should Leave the Eurozone
by Elliott Morss
In my last article, I argued that Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain should leave the Eurozone. Why? Because, at the € exchange rate they must accept as long as they are in it, their costs are too high. Their costs being too high means their unemployment rates will remain at unacceptable levels and their trade deficits will continue. This article takes the form of an open letter to the Presidents and Finance Ministers of these four countries. Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged currency, current account, debt, default, Elliott Morss, EU, euro, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, weak sisters
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Portfolio: Preparing for Greece’s Failure
The financial news of the week again is about the eurozone and we are seeing lots of entities come up with lots of possible solutions about how to solve the eurozone problem. They all of course rest on what to do about Greece. The problem is, they are coming from the wrong angle. From STRATFOR’s point of view, Greece does not have a particularly bright future as a state before the eurozone crisis is taken into account. Continue reading
Posted in macroeconomics
Tagged bailouts, default, euro, Eurozone, France, Greece, Italy, NATO, Portugal, Realpolitik, Stratfor, Turkey
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Comparing Ireland 2011 with Argentina 1999
If enough financial help is provided through a joint venture between the IMF and the European Union, Ireland will have the chance to restore confidence without issuing new debt in the coming months. Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, Latin America, macroeconomics
Tagged Argentina, debt, default, EU, European Union, IMF, International Monetary Fund, Ireland, Jose Luis Machinea, Pablo Schiaffino, restructuring
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The Great Debate©: Will Muni Bond Defaults be a Big Problem?
Meredith Whitney has made a prediction that there will be many municipal defaults. This article discusses that debate and how it may impact investment. Continue reading
Posted in Government, Great Debate©
Tagged 60 Minutes, default, Jeff Gundlach, Meredith Whitney, muni bonds, municipal bonds, Robert Huebscher
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Will Europe Face Defaults?
It appears that a number of sovereign debt defaults are imminent in Europe. How these are handled will determine if a European Union survives or just shambles. Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, Government
Tagged Belgium, debt sovereign debt, default, Eastern Europe, EU, Europe, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain
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