Tag Archives: credit

The 2013 Economic Outlook – Bright Sunshine for the U.S., Periods of Cloud Abroad

by Paul Kasriel, The Econtrarian Author’s Warning: Do not attempt reading the entirety of this commentary without the aid of your stimulant of choice. I apologize for the length of the commentary, but believed it necessary in order to inform … Continue reading

Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, Federal Reserve, Japan, macroeconomics, money | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Is Consumer Credit Fueling Retail Sales Growth?

Written by Steven Hansen Last week I posed the question whether the consumer was returning. It seems to be a common perception that consumer credit is driving the retail economic expansion. Below is a set of graphs that may surprise. … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Credit, Retail & Business Sales, Weekly Economic Summary | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Student Debt Likely to Grow to 7.7% of USA Gross Public Debt by 2020

by EconMatters Student loan debt is surging, partly boosted by many who became unemployed during the Great Recession going back to school hoping for a better job prospect.  An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) showed … Continue reading

Posted in Consumer Credit | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Credit, Demand and Unemployment

The change in debt is related to the current level of economic activity—on both commodity and asset markets. This explains correlations between the rate of change of debt, the level of output (and hence of unemployment), and the level of asset prices. Continue reading

Posted in Studies, macroeconomics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

China: Small Company Crack in the High Growth Armor

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are by far the most efficient part of the Chinese economy and the only part creating real value. My experience in other developing countries suggest that SME owners tend to be the most sensitive to and aware of changes in risk, and if we start to see rising bankruptcies among SMEs, coupled with disinvestment and increasing capital outflows, that is almost always a very worrying sign. When SME owners start to worry, so should we. Continue reading

Posted in China | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The New Feudalism

Debt is the new global feudal lord. Debt will not be repaid and soon the debt service won’t be payable either. The serfs, not the Lords, should be bailed out. Continue reading

Posted in Banking News, Federal Reserve, US Treasury | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

The Road Not Taken

In the two years since Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail, there have been numerous books on the causes of the financial crisis. The housing boom and subsequent collapse is understandably at the epicenter of most of the books. Depending on the political persuasion of the author, the emphasis is that conservatives or liberals deserve more blame for the following reasons. What typically follows is a narrative of political bias. The fact is that both views have it partially right. However, at the end of the day, what is more important is that a number of contributing factors are worse now than before the crisis. Continue reading

Posted in Business News and Analysis, Federal Reserve, Government, Home Sales and Home Prices | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Great Debate – Is Obama the Cause of the Slow Recovery?

The Great Debate© presents two differing views on the critical factors effecting a slow recovery. One view is from Michael Boskin, Stanford University and The Hoover Institution and a second view is from Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust. Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP, Great Debate© | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Consumer Credit Flat in July 2010

If consumer credit’s decline has stopped, it is one economic headwind which has abated. Continue reading

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