Tag Archives: coal

Rail Traffic in December 2012 Projects a Slowly Growing Economy

Written by Steven Hansen Depending on how you view the data, using rail to analyze the economy presents a mixed picture in December 2012.  Rail becomes a transporter of commodities early in the manufacturing cycle, and its intermodal movements (usually … Continue reading

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Rail Traffic Stronger in November 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The variations and special situations associated with rail traffic continue.  In the November 2012 Association of American Railroads (AAR) report talks about one of the wobbles in this month’s data. As of November 2012, year-over-year U.S. … Continue reading

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Rail Data in October 2012 Shows Economy Is Softening

Written by Steven Hansen The October 2012 rail data overall trend shows transport is weakening. Even the growth in intermodal traffic continues to show lower growth, and is no longer growing at a record pace. ….. Intermodal volume in October … Continue reading

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Rail Movements Present a Mixed Picture in September 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The September 2012 rail data can be read several ways, but the overall trend seems to show transport is weakening.  Even the growth in the “hottest” portion of rail was not as good as previous months, … Continue reading

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August 2012 Rail Movements: Economic Intuitive Elements Improve

Written by Steven Hansen Based on the July 2012 rail data, we warned that the economy could be at a pivot point based on declining economic intuitive elements of the rail data – and now with the August data, the … Continue reading

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Global Warming Is Here, Getting Worse – What Should We Do?

by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Even some skeptics agree: global warming, caused primarily by CO2 emissions, is here and will get worse. Are the energy options we have significant enough to make any meaningful difference in the destruction and … Continue reading

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July 2012 Rail Movements: Economic Winds Changing?

Written by Steven Hansen Could it be that rail is warning of an economic pivot point?  Reflecting on the July 2012 rail data which we report on weekly – the trends within the data have changed.  Is it just one … Continue reading

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June 2012 Rail Movements: A Good Month

Written by Steven Hansen Not only has coal been screwing up analysis of rail data, this month we can add grain to the list.  The transport portion of the economy is showing the real economy is expanding at least 3%. … Continue reading

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May 2012 Rail Movements: Data Shows the Economy Is Healthy

Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect publishes Association of American Railroads (AAR) weekly traffic reports on Thursdays, and this post provides a monthly overview showing rail movements for May 2012 compared to May 2011. Coal is screwing up analysis of rail … Continue reading

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April 2012 Rail Movements: Worst Coal Shipment Decline Ever

Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect publishes Association of American Railroads (AAR) weekly traffic reports on Thursdays, and this post provides a monthly overview showing rail movements for April 2012 compared to April 2011.  In general, rail traffic was “less bad” … Continue reading

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Global Emissions – The Biggest Offenders

by Elliott Morss Introduction In a recent article, I concluded that global CO2 emissions will continue to grow rapidly in the foreseeable future. In this article, I look at who are the biggest offenders, both countries and fuels. The Countries … Continue reading

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Energy Transitions: Are We In One Now? Part Three, Investments

In the first part of this series, I looked lessons learned from earlier energy transitions. In Part Two, I applied those lessons to the current scene. Here, I look at investments being made in the energy industries and reach conclusions on global warming. Continue reading

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Energy Transitions: Are We In One Now? (Part Two)

In the first article in this four-part series, I asked what lessons can be drawn from history about how the world moves from one type of energy era to another. In this piece, I look at the current situation and use the historical lessons to draw conclusions on what will happen next. Continue reading

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Railroads: April 2011 Is Less Good

What is happening on the USA steel roadways (railroads) is a direct reflection of the state of the USA economy. April 2011 has presented a positive – but mixed and less good – picture of the traffic on the railroads. A majority of goods we buy has ridden on rails at some point.

For the year to date through April, The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported total U.S. rail carloadings in April 2011 were up 3.8% (180,791 carloads) over the same period in 2010. Railfax, which reports on weekly cycles (not monthly) says the 4 week moving average is up YoY 3.7% using a 30 April 2011 cutoff (analysis here). The weakness of the latest data is that the March to April growth for 2011 is less than other recent years, except for 2009 when the economy was crashing into the final quarter of The Great Recession.
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Railroads: Traffic Up 3.4% in March 2011

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) March 2011 data shows a 3.4% improvement YoY – down from the 4.2% for February 2011 YoY improvement. Railfax, which reports on weekly cycles (not monthly) says the 4 week moving average is 6.0% using a 02 April 2011 cutoff. But the Railfax number includes intermodal traffic, while the headline AAR number does not.

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From Coal to Nuclear – A Look at the Numbers

The economics of increasing nuclear power and reducing coal seem quite doable. Of course, added safety costs based on a post-mortem of Japan may occur. Continue reading

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Rail Traffic Improves In February 2011 – But Less Good

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) February 2011 data shows a 4.2% improvement YoY – down from the 8% January 2011 YoY improvement. Continue reading

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Rail Traffic January 2011 Up 8% YoY

Rail car counts are stable with YoY improvement. But there is no clear trend line whether the YoY improvement (ie, second derivative) is growing or contracting. Continue reading

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