Tag Archives: CMI

March 28, 2013: BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Upward to a 0.38% Annual Growth Rate

Posted on 31 March 2013 by admin

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their third estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 0.38% annualized rate, roughly 2.7% worse … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged CMI, consumer confidence, Consumer Metrics Institute, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

Consumers: Past, Present and Future

Posted on 19 March 2013 by admin

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute Click on graph for larger image of calendar year 2012 chart. When we last looked back at our data for US consumer behavior for the end of 2012, we included comments on two phenomena … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, Durable Goods, Retail & Business Sales | Tagged auto sales, CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, retail sales, Rick Davis, weak economy | Leave a comment

BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate Once Again to 3.09%

Posted on 24 December 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their third (and “final“) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 3.09% annualized rate, an … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged BEA, BLS, CMI, Economy, GDP, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

Holiday Consumer Activities

Posted on 20 December 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute Earlier we presented a chart that attempted to quantify the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers. We did that by comparing this year’s behavior with … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, Durable Goods | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, Rick Davis, weak economy | 1 Comment

GDP Report: Improving Growth or Continued Weakness?

Posted on 27 October 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their first (“Advance”) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.02% annualized rate, some 0.76% higher than for … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged BEA, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, CPI, deflator, disposable income, GDP, PPI, recession, Rick Davis, weakening consumers | Leave a comment

Conflicting Consumer Data

Posted on 23 October 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute At the Consumer Metrics Institute our mission has been to analyze changes in on-line consumer behavior for early signals about the macro-economic health of the United States. So it makes sense that we are … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP, Personal Income and Consumption | Tagged BEA, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, deflator, GDP, recession, Rick Davis, weakening consumers | 1 Comment

2Q 2012 GDP Revised Down: The Details

Posted on 28 September 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their second and “final” revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.26%, down about a half … Continue reading →

Posted in GDP | Tagged BEA, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, disposable personal income, GDP, GDP backwards revisions, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

GDP: Little Changed at 1.73%

Posted on 30 August 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their first revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.73%, up 0.19% from their initial estimate … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP, Uncategorized | Tagged BEA, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, deflator, GDP, recession, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

CMI Weighted Composite Continues Plunge

Posted on 16 August 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis The year-over-year data in our Weighted Composite Index has continued a spectacular deterioration over the past month: Click on graph for larger image.

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, Retail & Business Sales | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, GDP, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

2Q 2012 GDP: Economy Slowing

Posted on 28 July 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their first estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.54%, down nearly a half percent from the (revised) 1.97% … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged BEA, CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, disposable personal income, GDP, GDP backwards revisions, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

1Q 2012 GDP: Minor Changes in Third Estimate

Posted on 29 June 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their third estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) left the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth unchanged at 1.88%, which is still more than a percent below the … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, disposable personal income, Economy, GDP, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

Consumer Contribution to GDP is Fading

Posted on 20 June 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis We have often commented about the disparity between shrinking per capita disposable income (which is contracting at an annualized -0.22% rate) and the BEA’s reported growth in consumer spending (reportedly growing at an annualized +1.91% rate). Assuming … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, disposable personal income, GDP, Rick Davis | 1 Comment

Government and Consumer Drag on GDP

Posted on 3 June 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their second estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth to 1.88% (down about a third of a percent from the 2.20% … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged BEA, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, CPI, deflator, disposbale income, GDP, government spending, PPI, recession, Rick Davis, weakening consumers | Leave a comment

GDP Slows During 1Q 2012

Posted on 28 April 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their “advanced” estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.20%, down more than three-quarters of a percent from the … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged BEA, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, deflator, disposbale income, GDP, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

GDP Number Remains Good, Components Shaky

Posted on 30 March 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their “final” revision of their estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.97%, down a mere 0.01 percent from … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, Economy, GDP, inventories, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

4Q 2012 GDP Revision: Modest Improvement

Posted on 1 March 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their first revision of their estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of economic growth was 2.98%, up about a quarter of a percent from … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged BEA, BLS, CMI, Consumer Metrics Institute, CPI, deflator, exports, GDP, imports, PPI, recession, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

4Q 2011 GDP: Seriously Mixed Signals

Posted on 28 January 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their “Advance” estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of economic growth had risen to 2.75%, up slightly less than one percent from their “final” … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, Economy, GDP, inventories, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

Taking a Closer Look at Mixed Signals

Posted on 19 January 2012 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis For those of us who track the macro-econometric behavior of consumers, the past six or seven months have been (at best) challenging. Just teasing out a “macro” behavior has been difficult, with wildly conflicting signals proving to … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, macroeconomics | Tagged automobiles, CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, Economy, Rick Davis | Leave a comment

Happy New Year? Not in GDP Numbers

Posted on 23 December 2011 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their third estimate of the third quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the headline growth number downward once again to an annualized growth rate of 1.81%. This revision represents a drop in … Continue reading →

Posted in Consumer Metrics Institute, GDP | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, disposable personal income, Economy, GDP, Rick Davis | 1 Comment

GDP Coal-Mine Canary: Per-Capita Disposable Income

Posted on 23 November 2011 by Rick Davis

by Rick Davis In their second estimate of the third quarter 2011 GDP, the estimate moved downward by over a half percent to an annualized growth rate of 2.01%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the headline growth number … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged CMI, consumer durables, Consumer Metrics Institute, consumers, disposable personal income, Economy, GDP, Rick Davis | Leave a comment