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ADP, by far the largest payroll provider in the USA, says private non-farm payroll grew in the USA 38,000 in May 2011 – far below the equilibrium job growth of 150,000 to keep even with population growth. Historically employment is the confirmation that real economic growth is occurring. As background, many economic factors factor into jobs growth. How many jobs businesses create in any one month is not directly dependent on these economic factors, but on individual decisions. The impact of all the economic factors is averaged out over many months.

It appears many businesses have decided to hold off hiring. This low number is surprising to Econintersect. In our May 2011 economic forecast, we estimated non-farm payroll growth at 130,000 which is far below other pundits who estimated 190,000. But there has been a lot of warning that employment would be lower based on the recent rise in the initial unemployment claims we have been seeing over the last 2 months.
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ADP says private non-farm payroll in the USA grew 179,000 in April 2011 – a rate much too slow to produce “recovery” from the Great Recession of 2007. Employment growth of 179,000 per month is only slightly above the rate of 150,000 needed to cover population growth. Continue reading →

ADP shows jobs growth at 201,000. Challenger says layoffs historically small. Why is the jobs growth not larger? Continue reading →