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Tag Archives: business cycle
Macroeconomics and the Financial Cycle: Hamlet without the Prince?
by Claudio Borio, Voxeu.org Since the early 1980s, the financial cycle has re-emerged as a major force driving the macroeconomy, but economic analysis has not caught up. This column argues that macroeconomics without the financial cycle is like Hamlet without … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, macroeconomics, money, stock markets
Tagged business cycle, Claudio Borio, Economy, Federal Reserve, financial cycle, macroeconomics
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Business Cycle Forecasting: The First-Rate Results of Robert F. Dieli
by Jeff Miller This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, ECRI WLI, Economics, economic predictions
Tagged business cycle, Economy, ECRI, Federal Reserve, GDP, Jeff Miller, recession, recovery, Robert F. Dieli
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Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli
by Jeff Miller Since last May I have been reviewing the record of those who forecast the business cycle. I developed a stringent list of requirements, “Jeff’s Acid Test,” and I frequently invited nominations. Here were the stated requirements: Openness … Continue reading
Evaluating Recession Forecasts: Read Critically
by Jeff Miller For investors who believe that stocks eventually reflect the fundamental strength of the companies, understanding the business cycle is crucial. Since popular sentiment and stock prices are often excessively negative about economic prospects, there is great opportunity … Continue reading
Posted in NBER, economic predictions, macroeconomics
Tagged business cycle, ECRI, Hussman, Jeff Miller, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER, recession
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Modeling a Multisectoral Economy
It is possible to model the dynamic process by which prices and outputs are set in a multisectoral economy. The failure of the neoclassical school to achieve this objective—which it has had since the time of Walras—may relate to the abstractions it made with the intention of making this process easier to model. Failures are derived from lack of attention to money and to uncertainty. A major fault may be laid at the feet of “rational expectations.” Continue reading
Posted in Studies
Tagged business cycle, economic behavior, keynes, macroeconomic analysis, monetary analysis, steve keen, supply and demand
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Normalized GDP is the “Real” Growth
Normalizing GDP to population gives a much more meaningful description of the business cycle, especially for the recovery phase. Continue reading
Business Cycle Drivers
The primary driver of recovery and expansion is demand. There are many traps related to monetary issues in the down portion of the business cycle, but ultimately monetary factors are symptoms of depression and not the primary drivers. Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis
Tagged business cycle, depression, Derryl Hermanutz, recession, recovery
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Depression: The Forgotten Part of the Business Cycle
Economic robustness is reflected by the strength of recovery. In the business cycle, recession plus recovery defines a depression of economic activity below prior levels. Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, GDP
Tagged business cycle, depression, expansion, GDP, recession, recovery
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