Tag Archives: BLS

Export / Import Price Deflation Continues in May 2013

Written by Steven Hansen In May 2013, year-over-year price deflation continues in import prices for 12 of the last 13 months. Export prices are also deflating for the second month in a row: with imports down 0.6% month-over-month, down 1.9% … Continue reading

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Fed’s QE Has No Impact on Full Time Jobs, Ratio Stuck at 1983 Levels

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner In Part 1 of this report we looked at non-farm payrolls, which come from the BLS the Current Employment Statistics Survey or CES, a survey of business establishments. The BLS also does a survey … Continue reading

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May 2013 Conference Board Employment Index Suggests Little Employment Growth this Summer

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months – rose marginally in its May 2013 release. The Conference Board believes their index is signalling little improvement in jobs through … Continue reading

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A Relatively Good BLS Jobs Situation in May 2013

Written by Steven Hansen The May 2013 BLS jobs report was within or above expectations. This data was relatively good considering how mediocre last month’s data was. the real unadjusted non-farm private jobs gain comparing the changes between Aprils and … Continue reading

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Productivity 1Q2013 (Final): Labor Cost Now Growing Faster Than Productivity

Written by Steven Hansen [Note: This post is a markup of the preliminary data post, and the significant difference is that there was a major revision to labor costs in 4Q2012 and 1Q2013] A simple summary of this release comparing … Continue reading

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May 2013 ADP Jobs 135,000, Another Weak Jobs Report

Written by Steven Hansen ADP reported May 2013 non-farm private jobs growth at 135,000. The market expected 140K to 157K (versus the 135K reported). These numbers are all seasonally adjusted. This month, ADP’s analysis is that small and medium sized … Continue reading

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BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2013 GDP

May 30, 2013 – BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Down Slightly To 2.38% Annual Rate by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2013, the Bureau of … Continue reading

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Export / Import Price Deflation in April 2013

Written by Steven Hansen In April 2013, year-over-year price deflation continues in import prices for 11 of the last 12 months . Export price price are also deflating this month: with imports down 0.5% month-over-month, down 2.6% year-over-year and exports … Continue reading

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Using the Jobs Report To Forecast the Economy

Written by Steven Hansen It continues to amaze me of the love affair between Wall Street and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report – aka the Jobs Report.  It is nearly a worthless data set in real … Continue reading

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Payrolls Gain But QE Has No Impact On Growth Rate

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 165,000 in April nonfarm payrolls, beating the consensus estimates of 140,000 to 155,000 from surveys of economists by mainstream media organizations. Surprise, surprise (not) … Continue reading

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April 2013 Conference Board Employment Index Improves Marginally

Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months – rose marginally in its April 2013 release. The Conference Board believes their index continues to signal moderate employment growth; Econintersect‘s … Continue reading

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BLS Jobs Situation Just OK in April 2013

Written by Steven Hansen The April 2013 BLS jobs report was above expectations. There was nothing in this data that was very good or very bad. But if you were expecting a bad report, this report was excellent. the real … Continue reading

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Productivity 1Q2013 (Preliminary): Productivity Grows Faster than Costs

Written by Steven Hansen A simple summary of this release is that the rate of productivity growth is up , whilst the rate of growth of labor costs is down. Overall, comparing one year ago – productivity is growing faster … Continue reading

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April 2013 ADP Jobs 119,000, Well Under Expectations

Written by Steven Hansen ADP reported April 2013 non-farm private jobs growth at 119,000. The market expected 150K to 155K (versus the 119K reported). These numbers are all seasonally adjusted. This month, ADP’s analysis is that small and medium sized … Continue reading

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GDP: Inventory Build Saves the Day

April 26, 2013 – BEA Estimates 1st Quarter 2013 GDP Growing at 2.5% Annual Rate by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their first estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2013, the Bureau of Economic Analysis … Continue reading

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Export / Import Price Moderation Continues In March 2013

Written by Steven Hansen In March 2013, year-over-year price deflation continues in import prices for 10 of the last 11 months . Export price price inflation grew marginally year-over-year but fell month-over-month: with imports down 0.5% month-over-month, down 2.7% year-over-year … Continue reading

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March 2013 Conference Board Employment Index Declines

Written by Steven Hansen The ghost of last Friday’s BLS March jobs report still haunts the analysts and talking heads.  The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months – fell slightly in its … Continue reading

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BLS Jobs Situation Bad and Confusing in March 2013

Written by Steven Hansen The March 2013 BLS jobs report was unexpectedly weak. the real unadjusted non-farm private jobs gain comparing the changes between February and March was low historically for periods were the economy was expanding. economic intuitive sectors … Continue reading

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March 2013 ADP Jobs 158,000, Less Good Jobs Growth Now at 11 Months

Written by Steven Hansen ADP reported March 2013 non-farm private jobs growth at 158,000. The market expected 200K (versus the 158K reported). These numbers are all seasonally adjusted. This month, ADP’s analysis is that small and medium sized business created … Continue reading

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Full Time Job Growth is Weak

Top Line Employment Looks Good, But Full Time Job Growth Is Falling Apart Since QE3 by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS last week reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 236,000 in February nonfarm payrolls. This massively beat … Continue reading

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