Econintersect Analysis Blog
Tag Archives: AAR
Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect publishes Association of American Railroads (AAR) weekly traffic reports on Thursdays, and this post provides a monthly overview showing rail movements for March 2012 compared to March 2011. carloads down 5.8% year-over-year intermodal (containers or … Continue reading
Written by Steven Hansen Rail movements contracted in February 2012 compared to February 2011. carloads down 1.9% year-over-year intermodal (containers or trailers on railcars) up 2.4% year-over-year total carloads plus intermodal down 0.1% year-over-year Econintersect uses rail movements to add … Continue reading
Although the January 2012 rate of growth of rail movements is the worst in five months, it still shows a 0.8% growth over January 2011. Econintersect uses rail movements to complement its understanding of economic dynamics in coming months. As … Continue reading
Continuing the trend established in last month, the rail traffic upward trend continues in December 2011 with rail traffic growing 9.4% for intermodal and 7.3% for commodity carloads year-over-year. This is a positive economic indicator for the coming months. Overall … Continue reading
Continuing the trend established in last month, the rail traffic upward trend continues in November 2011 with rail traffic growing 3.0% year-over-year (total – rail carloads plus intermodal). This is a positive economic indicator for the coming months. Part of … Continue reading
October 2011 rail traffic has entered a new upward trend with rail traffic growing 1.7% year-over-year. This is a reversal of the previous downward trend which ended in August 2011 with a zero year-over-year growth. This is a very strong … Continue reading
by Steven Hansen
Rail traffic, while weakening since May, had enough marginal improvement in September to lift rail transport from the edge of contraction breaking the less good trend. Continue reading
Continuing with last months theme – August 2011 rail traffic is showing little year over year growth, and continues to warn the economy is at stall speed. Econintersect believes transports are the window into the economy. This post will review rail, as well as other major transport indicators to provide an overview of the softening economy. Continue reading
Rail traffic in July 2011 continues to degrade year-over-year, and now is literally showing no growth over 2010. Overall, Econintersect sees a mixed message in the rail data. Definitely the “less good” consumer related rail movements raises alarm bells. Continue reading
Rail carload counts are down because users of coal are turning to alternative energy sources. If Econintersect ignores coal, carloads are up 12% year-over-year – and that is the metric to judge economic growth year-over-year. Continue reading
Rail traffic remains well under its 2006 peak, and the growth is flat against 2010. The fly-in-the-ointment is growth is coming from a single sector of rail transport – intermodal which is the transport of containers and trailers on rail cars. Continue reading
What is happening on the USA steel roadways (railroads) is a direct reflection of the state of the USA economy. April 2011 has presented a positive – but mixed and less good – picture of the traffic on the railroads. A majority of goods we buy has ridden on rails at some point.
For the year to date through April, The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported total U.S. rail carloadings in April 2011 were up 3.8% (180,791 carloads) over the same period in 2010. Railfax, which reports on weekly cycles (not monthly) says the 4 week moving average is up YoY 3.7% using a 30 April 2011 cutoff (analysis here). The weakness of the latest data is that the March to April growth for 2011 is less than other recent years, except for 2009 when the economy was crashing into the final quarter of The Great Recession.
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) March 2011 data shows a 3.4% improvement YoY – down from the 4.2% for February 2011 YoY improvement. Railfax, which reports on weekly cycles (not monthly) says the 4 week moving average is 6.0% using a 02 April 2011 cutoff. But the Railfax number includes intermodal traffic, while the headline AAR number does not.
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) February 2011 data shows a 4.2% improvement YoY – down from the 8% January 2011 YoY improvement. Continue reading
Rail car counts are stable with YoY improvement. But there is no clear trend line whether the YoY improvement (ie, second derivative) is growing or contracting. Continue reading
The October rail cargo report continues to show moderate traffic for 2010 between 2009 and 2007 levels. There is no sign of a return to recession here. Continue reading