Tag Archives: James D. Hamilton

What’s Going to Happen to the Fed’s Balance Sheet?

by James D. Hamilton, Econbrowser.com Originally published at Econbrowser 17 March 2013. The Federal Reserve has increased its assets from $900 billion in 2007 to over $3,150 billion and still climbing today. On the liabilities side of the Fed’s balance … Continue reading

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Dude, Where’s My Cheap Gas?

by James D. Hamilton, Econbrowser.com This article was originally published at Econbrowser. Those who have been told that oil production is booming may be wondering why the prices of oil and gasoline are climbing again.

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Review: American Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis

by James D. Hamilton, reproduced from EconBrowser.com The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Thursday that it had sold the last remaining securities from its Maiden Lane III portfolio, successfully closing the chapter on its assistance to insurance giant AIG. … Continue reading

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Can America Capitalize on Natural Gas?

by James D. Hamilton, reproduced from EconBrowser.com Editor’s note: This article originally appeared at Econbrowser with the title: Using Natural Gas Here’s a promising story for the U.S. economy. The figure below plots the price of crude oil in dollars … Continue reading

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Can America Capitalize on Natural Gas?

by James D. Hamilton, reproduced from EconBrowser.com Editor’s note: This article originally appeared at Econbrowser with the title: Using Natural Gas Here’s a promising story for the U.S. economy. The figure below plots the price of crude oil in dollars … Continue reading

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Effects of Operation Twist

by Guest Author: James D. Hamilton
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday ([1], [2]) that it will sell some of its shorter-term assets in order to buy more longer-term assets. Here I assess some of the possible consequences of this move.

The modest effects that one could reasonably anticipate for a measure like operation twist are easily swamped by other developments, and even a sizable effect on 30-year Treasury yields would not in my mind provide a major stimulus. I think the correct interpretation is that the Fed would like to bring some more stimulus, this was something they could do in that direction, so they did it.

But if you were about to drown, I wouldn’t want to count on operation twist as your lifeline to safety. Continue reading

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Deflating Any Economic Enthusiasm

Damage has been done by the drama over the debt ceiling vote in Washington. We did get an extension, but not much else except uncertainty. Continue reading

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Oil Price Manipulation

In late May the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a civil enforcement action alleging that Nicholas Wildgoose and James Dyer, who worked as traders for Arcadia Petroleum Ltd. and its affiliates, profited by manipulating the price of oil and oil futures in early 2008. I was interested to take a look at the details of the CFTC allegations. Continue reading

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Lower Oil Prices

It is possible that last week’s dramatic oil price declines are only the beginning. In terms of what this means for American consumers, each $1/barrel change in the price of oil usually translates into 2.5 cents per gallon of gasoline at the pump. With the price of oil now down $16 from its peak, that might mean a drop of 40 cents per gallon in the retail price of gasoline.

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Libya,Oil Prices, and the Economic Outlook

Analysis indicates that the disruption to oil supplies thus far from middle east unrest is unlikely to bring on another recession. However, if turmoil spreads….? Continue reading

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Oil Shocks and Economic Recessions

There is a strong correlation between oil price shocks and the start of recessions. Continue reading

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