Durable Goods Sales Improved in January 2011

Advanced durable goods data for January 2011 indicates a slight improvement over December.  The fly in the ointment is continuing fluctuation of the transport sector of durable goods.

Durable goods improvement YoY continues in a declining improvement channel as the data is compared  to stronger durable goods sales in the first half of 2010.

According to the US Census who uses seasonally adjusted data:

New Orders. New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $5.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $200.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed three consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.4 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following three consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $10.9 billion or 27.6 percent to $50.5 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $7.3 billion.

Shipments. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up four of the last five months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $202.9 billion. This followed a 2.3 percent December increase. Primary metals, up six consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 4.0 percent to $23.0 billion.

Unfilled Orders. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up nine of the last ten months, increased $4.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $829.4 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent December decrease. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $475.7 billion.

Inventories. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up thirteen consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $324.8 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, also up
thirteen consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $86.9 billion.

The above clearly shows the improvement in durable goods.  Econintersect believes that YoY comparisons used by the US Census in its seasonal adjustment methodology –  does not take into effect New Normal realities.

But the durable goods data this month is tainted by the noisy transport sector.

Backlog or unfilled orders again increased in January demonstrating that this industry is properly sized for the demand.

Related Articles:

U.S. Had to Export Jobs for Demographic Reasons by John Lounsbury

Philly Fed Business Survey Says Everything Points to Growth by Steven Hansen

Industrial Production Nearly Flat – Why Forecasters Are Wrong by Steven Hansen

Overall December 2010 Was a Pretty Good Month for Business by Steven Hansen

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Improves – What Is This Saying? by Steven Hansen

Share this Econintersect Article:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks
  • LinkedIn
  • Wikio
  • email
  • RSS
This entry was posted in Durable Goods, Manufacturing and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.