Unemployment Claims Return to Center of 3-Year Channel

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 413,920 in the week ending December 21, a decrease of 159 from the previous week. There were 457,578 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012 according to the US Department of Labor. The media reports only the headline number, which is seasonally adjusted hocus pocus that is sometimes misleading. I like to focus on the actual data and look at the big picture trend using the tools of technical analysis. That shows an amazingly consistent trend that has persisted for three and a half years.

Initial Claims Back to Trend - Click to enlargeInitial Claims Back to Trend – Click to enlarge

Last week’s number was down 9.4% from the same week of 2012. That’s near the middle of the range of the annual percentage change since mid 2010. The Fed’s massive QE3-4 program under way since November 2012 has had NO IMPACT on this trend.

Econ Chart Update- CPI, Jobs, Hourly Earnings, Real Retail Sales Show QE/ZIRP Massive Failure

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See Rick Santelli use one of my proprietary charts on CNBC to explain how the Fed impacts the stock market directly through its trades with the Primary Dealers. This is just one example of the dozens of proprietary charts that I build that will help you to clearly see and understand the market’s trend, and when that trend is beginning to change.

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