September 2013 Conference Board Employment Index Forecasts Employment May Accelerate

Written by

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months – again rose in September 2013.

The Conference Board believes future employment growth will likely accelerate – while Econintersect‘s own employment index is saying that economic pressures should weaken in the coming month but the trend will reverse early next year.

From the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September. The index now stands at 114.78, up from 113.98 (an upward revision) in August. The ETI figure for September is 6.3 percent higher than a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index accelerated in August and September, with improvements across all eight components during these two months,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “In contrast to the gloomy headlines from Tuesday’s jobs report, the ETI signals upward momentum in labor market conditions in the months ahead.”

September’s improvement in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from seven of its eight components. The increasing indicators — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Temporary Employees, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence Survey® Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Job Openings.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.

Comparing BLS Non-Farm Employment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI (yellow line, right axis)

/images/employment_indices.png

The graph above offsets the Conference Board ETI by 6 months. Econintersect sees employment weakening over the coming months but the trend will reverse as we enter the new year.

Caveats on the Employment Trends Index

According to the Conference Board:

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Unfortunately many of these indices are not accurate in real time being subject to at times significant backward revision.

All posts on employment

Share this Econintersect Article:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks
  • LinkedIn
  • Wikio
  • email
  • RSS
This entry was posted in aa syndication, Employment and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.














Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.