Investors like to watch retail sales as it is a window into economic direction. Approximately 2/3 of GDP is generated by consumption.
In August 2010, same store retail sales increased 2.9% YoY following a July 2010 2.5% YoY gain, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU) data. I use this data as a proxy for the complete US Census data on retail Sales.
Although there is not exact correlation, there is a general correlation between BTMU same store sales and the US Census retail sales. I would expect US Census retail sales to be equally as strong YoY.
Beginning in September (and just in time for elections), year-over-year comparisons will be based on relatively stronger “recovery” sales levels in late 2009. We could start seeing negative gains and the double-dippers will be out in force.