July 2013 Empire State Survey Improves, Even the Detail Is Better

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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (manufacturing in New York State) in July 2013 shows manufacturing is expanding for the second month in a row.

  • This noisy index has moved from  7.4 (July), -5.9 (August), -10.4 (September), -6.2 (October), -5.2 (November), -8.1 (December), -7.8 (January 2013). 10.0 (February) , 9.2 (March), 3.1 (April), -1.4 (May), 7.8 (June) – and now 9.5.
  • Expectation was for a reading of 3.0 to 3.6 versus the 9.5 reported
  • New orders sub-index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey finally moved into expansion territory, while unfilled orders was less bad but continued to say that this sector is contracting.

As this index is very noisy, it is hard to understand what these massive moves up or down mean – however this regional manufacturing survey is normally one of the most pessimistic.

Econintersect reminds you that this is a survey (a quantification of opinion). Please see caveats at the end of this post. However, sometimes it is better not to look to deeply into the details of a noisy survey as just the overview is all you need to know.

From the report:

The July 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve modestly. The general business conditions index rose two points to 9.5. The new orders index rose ten points to 3.8, and the shipments index climbed twenty-one points to 9.0. The prices paid index fell four points to 17.4, pointing to a slower pace of input price increases, while the prices received index fell to 1.1, suggesting that selling prices were little changed. Employment indexes were mixed, and indicated little positive momentum in the labor market. The index for number of employees inched up to 3.3, while the average workweek index remained negative at -7.6. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally higher—a sign that optimism about future business conditions had strengthened.

In a series of supplementary survey questions, firms were asked how they expected the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to affect them and how they were responding to its provisions. Three in four respondents said that they have not made, and do not plan to make, changes in their health plans. Roughly the same proportion indicated that they have made minimal or no changes in their workforces; a somewhat smaller majority (65 percent) said they did not anticipate making any major changes over the next year. Nearly 15 percent of those surveyed indicated that they would outsource more work. A large majority of manufacturers, more than 85 percent, reported that they expected their health insurance costs to increase as a result of the ACA; none anticipated a decrease. See the full supplemental report for a more detailed summary.

/images/z empire1.PNG

The above graphic shows that when the index is in negative territory that is not a signal of a recession: of 5 times in negative territory only one occurred with a recession. Conversely, a positive number is likely to be indicating economic expansion. However, when it does make a correct negative prediction it can be timely. This index was only two months late in going negative after what was eventually determined to be the start of the 2007 recession.

This survey has a lot extra bells and whistles which take attention away from the core questions: (1) are orders and (2) are unfilled orders (backlog) improving? Econintersect emphasizes these two survey points.

Respondents believe the level of unfilled orders (backlog) is trending down; it has been negative since 2011. Unfilled order contraction can be a signal for a recession.

Holding this and other surveys Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Empire State Survey (darker green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data

/images/z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)

Caveats on the use of Empire State Manufacturing Survey:

This is a survey, a quantification of opinion – not facts and data. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months, and can provide early insight into changing conditions. Econintersect finds they do not necessarily end up being consistent compared to hard economic data that comes later, and can miss economic turning points.

According to Bloomberg:

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001. Each month, new data will be released and the previous month’s data will be revised slightly. Once per year, all data will undergo a benchmark revision.

This Empire State Survey is very noisy – and has shown recessionary conditions throughout the second half of 2011 – and no recession resulted. Overall, since the end of the 2007 recession – this index has indicated two false recession warnings.

No survey is accurate in projecting employment – and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is no exception. Although there are some general correlation in trends, month-to-month movements have not correlated with the BLS Service Sector Employment data.

Over time, there is a general correlation with real manufacturing data – but month-to-month conflicts are frequent.

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