Written by Steven Hansen
In April 2013, both Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and Real Disposable Personal Income (DPI) rose weakly. The headline current value PCE and DPI declined, and there is no indication in this data of a strengthening economy.
- The market looks at current values (not real inflation adjusted) and was expecting a PCE (expenditures) rise of 0.1% (versus a decline of 0.1% actual), and a rise in DPI (income) of -0.2% to +0.1% (versus a decline of 0.2% actual). In other words the market was expecting better data.
- Real Personal Income is up 1.0% year-over-year, and real personal expenditures are up 2.1% year-over-year.
- this data is very noisy and as usual includes backward revision (detailed below) making real time analysis problematic – and the backward revisions this month was minor.
- Thursday’s second estimate of 1Q2013 GDP release showed the Wall Street economy growing at 2.4%
- The savings rate continues to be the lowest since the end of the Great Recession.
The inflation adjusted numbers are chained.
Econintersect believes year-over-year trends are very revealing in understanding economic dynamics. Again, there was a broad revision this month in the data for the last six months, which is explained below (see caveats below).
Per capita inflation adjusted expenditure has exceeded the pre-recession peak.
Seasonally and Inflation Adjusted Expenditure Per Capita
Per capita inflation adjusted income still remains under the pre-recession levels.
Seasonally and Inflation Adjusted Income Per Capita
The graph below illustrates the relationship between income (DPI) and expenditures (PCE) – showing clearly income and expenditures grow at nearly the same rate over time. However, in the last six months expenditures are growing much faster than income.
Indexed to Jan 2000, Growth of Real Disposable Income (blue line) to Real Expenditures (red line)
The trend is that the consumer is spending more of its income.
Seasonally Adjusted Spending’s Ratio to Income (a declining ratio means consumer is spending less of its Income)
PCE is the spending of consumers. In the USA, the consumer is the economy. Likewise, personal income is the money consumers earn to spend. Even though most analysts concentrate on personal expenditures because GDP is based on spending, increases in personal income allow consumers the option to spend more.
There is a general correlation of PCE to GDP (PCE is a component of GDP). This index has shown negative growth several times since the end of the 2007-09 recession. PCE is a fairly noisy index and subject at times to significant backward revision (see caveats below).
Seasonally and Inflation Adjusted Year-over-Year Change of Personal Consumption Expenditures (blue line) to GDP (red line)
Econintersect and GDP uses the inflation adjusted (chained) numbers. Disposable Personal Income (DPI) is the income after the taxes.
Seasonally & Inflation Adjusted Percent Change From the Previous Month – Personal Disposable Income (red line) and Personal Disposable Expenditures (blue line)
And please note that Econintersect’s previous analysis of PCE and DPI is not significantly changed by this month’s revisions:
Estimates for personal income and DPI have been revised for October through March; estimates for PCE have been revised for January through March. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (2005) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (2005) dollar PCE for February and March — revised and as published in last month’s release — are shown below.
Estimates of wages and salaries were revised from October through March. The revision to fourth-quarter wages and salaries reflected the incorporation of the most recently available BLS tabulations of the fourth-quarter wages and salaries from the quarterly census of employment and wages (QCEW). The QCEW data include irregular pay, such as bonuses and gains from the exercise of stock options. Accelerated bonuses in anticipation of changes to individual income tax rates were reflected in the fourth-quarter QCEW data.
The savings rate has been bouncing around in 2012 – but the last 4 month trend is now down. In an economy driven by consumers, a higher savings rate does not bode well for increased GDP. This is one reason GDP may not be a good single metric of economic activity. The question remains what is the optimal savings rate for the current demographics. It might be expected that as people near retirement, the savings rate rises and after people retire, savings rate falls. Econintersect is not aware of any study which documents this effect. The graph below is from BEA table 2.6. – and shows a significant fall in savings rate for January 2013 – and not much change through April (April is 2.5%).
Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
And one look at the different price changes seen by the BEA in this PCE release versus the BEA’s GDP and BLS’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). We should note that the inflation adjustment is for PCE and Personal Income is lower than the ones used for GDP and CPI.
Year-over-Year Change – PCE’s Price Index (blue line) versus CPI-U (red line) versus GDP Deflator (green line)
Finally for recession watchers, here is the graph below, here are the elements used to mark a recession. (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.
If a line falls below the 0 (black line) – that sector is contracting from the previous month. Personal income is the blue line. Note – the below graph uses multipliers to make movements more obvious (ignore the value of the scale, only consider whether the graph is above [good] or below [bad] the zero line).
Month-over-Month Growth Personal Income less transfer payments (blue line), Employment (red line), Industrial Production (green line), Business Sales (orange line)
Caveats on the Use of Personal Income and Consumption Expenditure Data
PCE is a fairly noisy index and subject at times to significant backward revision. This index cannot be relied upon in real time.
This personal income and personal consumption expenditure data by itself is not a good tool to warn of an upcoming recession. Econintersect has shown that PCE is a distraction for recession watchers, with moves over a few months having a 30% accuracy of indicating a recession start, and a 70% incidence of indicating a non-recessionary event. The graph below shows the lack of correlation. Note, however, that PCE does have prolonged declines over many months associated with recessions but these long declines are not very good in “predicting” a recession until it is already underway.
Readers are warned that this article is based on seasonally adjusted data. Monthly non-adjusted data is available with a delay of several months.