USA Exports Highest Ever

October 2010 trade data continued to show a narrowing trade surplus.  The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report headlined:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total October exports of $158.7 billion and imports of $197.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $38.7 billion, down from $44.6 billion in September, revised. October exports were $4.9 billion more than September exports of $153.8 billion. October imports were $0.9 billion less than September imports of $198.4 billion.

In October, the goods deficit decreased $5.7 billion from September to $51.4 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion to $12.7 billion. Exports of goods increased $4.5 billion to $112.3 billion, and imports of goods decreased $1.2 billion to $163.7 billion. Exports of services increased $0.4 billion to $46.4 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $33.7 billion.

The goods and services deficit increased $6.4 billion from October 2009 to October 2010. Exports were up $20.6 billion, or 14.9 percent, and imports were up $27.0 billion, or 15.9

Econintersect evaluates the data based on unadjusted data.  This data confirms that the trade balance deficit has been improving for the last two months, and confirms growth in exports.  Exports, however, likely are nearly trending flat MoM when you recognize that a signifcant increase from September to October is normal.

The raw data says this was the best October for exports EVER – and also the best month for exports ever.  Somehow the seasonal adjustment methodology adjusted away this little fact.

The reason the trade balance shrunk is because exports were massively strong.  They were driven by every category and almost to every country.   And imports did improve MoM, but a MoM increase is normal between September and October.  Overall, Econintersect would have called imports flat.

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