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That German Miracle…

by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

Germany … the miracle economy of Europe:

Click to enlarge

Let’s do some growth facts. recall that G7 includes such powerhouses of negative growth as Japan and Italy, and the flagship of anemia France.

1) Germany vs G7 in real GDP growth:

Click to enlarge

From data illustrated above:

  • In the G7 group, Germany ranked 6th in growth terms over the 1980s, rising to 5th in the 1990s and 2000s, and, based on the IMF forecasts, can be expected to rank 4th in the period 2010-2018. In simple terms – Germany ranked below average in every decade since 1980 through 2009 and exact average in 2010-2018 period.
  • On a cumulated basis, starting from 100=1980, by the end of this year, judging by latests IMF forecast for 2013, Germany would end up with second slowest growth in G7, second only to Italy.
  • On a cumulated basis, starting from 100=1990, by the end of this year, judging by latests IMF forecast for 2013, Germany would end up with fourth fastest growth in G7. Ditto for the basis starting from 100=2000.

2) Germany vs G7 in annual growth rates in GDP based on Purchasing-power-parity adjustment (PPP) per capita to account for exchange rates and prices differentials:

Click to enlarge

From data illustrated above:

  • In the G7 group, Germany ranked 5th – or below average – in PPP-adjusted per capita growth terms over the 1980s and the 1990s, rising to 4th – group average – in the 2000s, and, based on the IMF forecasts, can be expected to rank 3rd – slightly above average – in the period 2010-2018. In simple terms – Germany ranked below or at the average in every decade since 1980 through 2009 and one place ahead of the average in 2010-2018 period.
  • Note: Germany is the only G7 country with shrinking overall population, that peaked in 2003 and has been declining since, thus helping its GDP (PPP) per capita performance.

Here’s the chart summarising Germany’s rankings in G7 in terms of two growth criteria discussed:

Click to enlarge

Germany might have been performing well in 2006 and 2011 (when it ranked 1st in real GDP growth terms) and really well in 2007-2008 and 2010 when it ranked 2nd, but other than that, it has been a lousy example for any sort of a miracle.

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2 Responses to That German Miracle…

  1. robcartervn says:

    Germany may not have the massive growth, but they save what they do get. USA and many EU nations give their growth mostly to the top 7% rich hoarding greedy bastards. Viz. USA average growth last year was either 1.7% or 2.7% I forget, but the top 1% had a growth of 11%. the Top 7% had most of the growth and 60% of Americans actually had a loss in growth already obtained from past endeavours. Always the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, why? because the rich buy the politics lock stock and barrel whatever Party it is even in Communism. Power rests with the Carl Rove or Karl Marx.
     
    Austerity to the poor and stimulus to the rich and invent new words like “Entitlements” and “Trickle down” to bluff the masses. That’s the name of the game really.

  2. I am really impressed by this excellent stuff.