Livingston Survey Downgrades Economic Forecast

The semi-annual Livingston Survey was just released by the Philly Fed.  The Livingston Survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph Livingston.  It is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations. It summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia.

Summary of the Economic Projections:

The 33 participants in the December Livingston Survey see modest output growth through 2011. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will rise at an annual rate of 2.3 percent during the second half of 2010. Moreover, output is expected xpected to grow 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2011, followed by growth of 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the second half of 2011. The current projection for growth in the second half of 2010 was lowered one full percentage point from the survey of six months ago, while the forecast for the first half of 2011 was lowered 0.5 percentage point.

The panelists expect to see a slow recovery in the labor market, with the unemployment rate at 9.6 percent in December 2010 and at 9.4 percent in June 2011. These estimates represent increases of 0.1 and 0.3 percentage point, respectively, from the survey of six months ago. The unemployment rate is then expected to fall slightly lower, to 9.2 percent in December 2011.

Econintersect presents forecasts without analysis unless there is an obvious deviation from other forecasts.  In this case, the forecasts are roughly similar to the Federal Reserve’s (see analysis here).  One table from the Fed’s forecast is shown below.

Tables From the Livingston Survey:

The survey itself has many more projections on CPI. earnings, retail trade, housing, industrial production, autos – and some breakdown of GDP elements.

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