Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in August to 95.7 (2004 = 100).
This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance – and is still forecasting modest growth. The market expected no change in the LEI (versus the -0.1% reported).
This index now is in general agreement with ECRI’s WLI.
Additional comments from the economists at The Conference Board add context to the index’s behavior.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in August to 95.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July, and a 0.5 percent decline in June.
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI has declined in three of the last six months. While its six-month growth rate has slowed substantially, it still remains in growth territory due to positive contributions from the financial components including stock prices, yield spread and the Leading Credit Index. Over the last several months, the U.S. LEI seems to be fluctuating around a flat trend, while strengths and weaknesses among its components remain balanced. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in August. The strengths among the coincident indicators have become less widespread, with three out of four components advancing over the past six months.”
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The economy continues to be buffeted by strong headwinds domestically and internationally. As a result, the pace of growth is unlikely to change much in the coming months. Weak domestic demand continues to be a major drag on the economy.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in August to 104.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent decline in June.
The August 2012 LEI which shows the index at levels below the pre-2007 recession – as well as showing some turbulence in the indicator’s post recession climb – note that Econintersect believes there should also be a dip in 2010 based on historical data:
LEI as an Economic Monitoring Tool:
The usefulness of the LEI is not in the headline graphics but by examining its trend behavior. Econintersect contributor Doug Short (Advisor Perspectives / dshort.com) produces two trend graphics. The first one shows the year-over-year growth, as well as the three month rolling average of the rate of change – shown against the NBER recessions.
For a better view of the current conditions, the above chart is zoomed below to better show the current timeframe.
As an analyst, I keep my eyes on 3 month rate-of-change (red bars). There is a short term (3 month) trend of degrading rate of growth – but the growth is positive. The recession warning follows months of negative growth of this index. This is why the authors of this index are saying no recession is coming this year.
This is the seventh month of the “new and improving” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and might prove to be a viable real time long range forecasting tool.
Only in hindsight years from now will we know. As a comparison to the LEI, ECRI’s WLI (which Econintersect reports on weekly) is now again trending negative indicating a contracting economy six months from today. Further ECRI is now saying we are in a recession – and is in direct conflict with The Conference Board’s LEI.
Current ECRI WLI Index
Econintersect believes the USA economy is currently weakly expanding, but our forecast only looks ahead one month (analysis here).
Caveats on the Use of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)
This index is produced by The Conference Board (a private money making company) – who charges for the details of the indices they publish – although the summary of this index is available to the public. Its designed to predict economic growth over the next six months.
This is not a “black box” economic forecasting index as The Conference Board publishes the components. It was completely revised with the release of the December 2011 (analysis comparing the old and new index components – click here). The new components of the index and multipliers:
The index does not adjust for inflation or population growth, is not final for several months after being published, and is subject to annual revision. The methodology in producing this index:
1) normalized levels of the indicator rather than its monthly changes will be used to calculate the component contributions of components based on diffusion indexes such as the ISM New Orders Index; 2) when component data are missing, autoregressions in log differences instead of levels will be used to calculate the statistical imputation of the missing months; 3) trend adjustment will be done in two periods: 1959-1983 and 1984-2010 (same as the volatility adjustment); and 4) LCI contributions to the LEI are calculated from its levels (not monthly changes) and it is inverted As a result of these changes, the history of the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the comprehensive benchmark revision. Based on its performance since 1990, and especially before and during the 2008-2009 recession, the new LEI should provide more accurate predictions of business cycle peaks and troughs.
Econintersect has published correlations of the new LEI to past recessions. At first glance this index provides recession warning.
The fly-in-the-ointment is that this analysis is that the above graph is not a real time analysis. Consider that the LEI is not final when first issued – it is subject to revision for months. From The Conference Board:
To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading, coincident and lagging indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each unavailable component. The resulting indexes are therefore constructed using real and estimated data, and will be revised as the unavailable data during the time of publication become available. Such revisions are part of the monthly data revisions, now a regular part of the U.S. Business Cycle Indicators program.
The data does not exist to establish what The Conference Board’s LEI values would have been in real time – at this point only the final numbers are known. Unfortunately, knowing the current values is no assurance that a recession is or is not imminent as there is no track record of real time performance.
Conference Board: LEI to be Revised by Lance Roberts (GEI News, 19 Jan 2012)
Can ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index be Trusted? by Georg Vrba, P.E.