Written by Steven Hansen
Based on the July 2012 rail data, we warned that the economy could be at a pivot point based on declining economic intuitive elements of the rail data – and now with the August data, the rail situation improved.
….. rail carloads of motor vehicles and equipment, lumber and wood, and crushed stone, sand, and gravel were among the leaders in terms of rail traffic growth in August 2012 compared with August 2011. These commodities are actually more highly correlated with GDP over time than waste and scrap materials are. In addition, the aggregate of total carloads and total intermodal units combined is more highly correlated with GDP than any single rail commodity is. The charts below and on the next page are similar to the chart above except that they substitute other rail traffic categories.
One month is not a trend – and one should argue that the downtrend in the intuitive elements have not yet been broken. Overall, the monthly summary data says:
- carloads down 1.4% year-over-year (compared to down 0.7% last month)
- excluding coal and grain (which are not economically intuitive), carloads in August 2012 were up 3.5% year-over-year.
- intermodal (containers or trailers on railcars) up 4.3% year-over-year (compared to up 5.6% last month). That’s the highest average for any July in history.
- total carloads plus intermodal up 1.1% year-over-year (compared to up 1.2% last month).
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports this data in three parts:
- intermodal (sea containers or trailers on special railcars)
- total railcars plus intermodal
AAR rail traffic data are reported as carloads or as intermodal units. Carload traffic is classified into one of 20 different commodity categories and is carried in a variety of rail car types (e.g., tank cars, covered hoppers, gondolas, boxcars, etc.). A unit of rail intermodal traffic is either a shipping container (currently about 87% of U.S. rail intermodal traffic) or a truck trailer (about 13%) carried on a railroad flat car. Intermodal is not included in carload figures. Commodity detail on the freight inside the container or trailer is not available.
Econintersect uses rail movements to add to understanding of possible economic dynamics in coming months – as rail movements come months before retail sales. As long as growth remains positive, it bodes well for a positive economic outlook. From a past AAR report:
Freight railroading is a “derived demand” industry: demand for rail service occurs as a result of demand elsewhere in the economy for the products railroads haul. Thus, rail traffic is a useful gauge of broader economic activity especially of the “tangible” economy.
As coal and grain comprises well over half of all commodities transported, and coal / grain have major demand fluctuations unassociated with the economy – the below graph removes coal from the equation – and shows a 1.4% gain year-over-year (versus 4.2% last month). This is the second month of decline – and is the basis of economic concern.
The graphic below compares non-seasonally adjusted total rail movements (including coal and grain) year-over-year.
Most finished consumer goods which travel on rail move in intermodal units, containers and trailers, on rail cars. If there was only one pulse point to watch – it is this one. A caveat here: this needs to be viewed with trucking data to get a complete picture – as this same service is provided by both modes of transport.
Rail is among the first reporters of July 2012 data. So far other major transport indicators are mixed but the transport data overall is showing weak growth:
- Truck Transport (July 2012): Up 1.2% month-over-month, 3.2% year-over-year
- Rail (July 2012): Up 1.2 % year-over-year (without coal and grain)
- Rail (August 2012) Up 1.1% year-over-year (without coal and grain)
- Container Counts (July 2012): exports down 0.7% year-over-year, while imports are down 2.3%
For container counts, only import counts are economically intuitive. Using transport as an economic barometer – the real economic growth in the USA seems to be around 2%.