US Census says manufacturing new orders improved 0.3% in September 2011. Econintersect analysis shows growth – but that growth is not as good as August 2011’s growth.
Using current dollars, however, September 2011 manufacturing sales was a record for Septembers.
|Econintersect (Inflation Adjusted)
The negative month-over-month numbers in the above table need to be viewed with respect to the New Normal effects – 2009 and 2010 Septembers have been stronger than Augusts. In 2011, August was stronger than September.
The health of manufacturing is gauged by the growth of unfilled orders. This month our analysis shows this is the first time that inflation adjusted growth has been positive for three consecutive months since the official end of the 2007 recession.
The inflation adjusted backlog growth is now showing that capacity is continuing to match demand. However, this is a rear view look at the economy. Manufacturing generally correlates to the economy – but does not share turning points with recession calls. So in context to economy watchers – manufacturing by itself cannot be used as an economic gauge.