US Census says manufacturing new orders expanded 2.4% in July 2011. Econintersect believes new orders grew 0.9% month-over-month and 0.7% inflation adjusted.
In viewing the unadjusted data, Econintersect sees 13.4% year-over-year growth (6.2% inflation adjusted) – hardly recessionary growth.
Manufacturing provides less than 10% of employment in the economy.
The health of manufacturing is gauged by the growth of unfilled orders. This month our analysis adjusted the order value to inflation – to see if the number of “widgets” under order was actually increasing.
The total value of unfilled orders improved month-over-month (blue line), and the year-over-year inflation adjusted change is positive for the second time in two years. The inflation adjusted backlog growth is now showing that capacity is matching demand.