by Rick Davis
Given that there are concerns about distorting pressures in current economic measurements, and in particular the possibility that the recent drop in mortgage rates might be pulling real estate demand forward, we offer the most recent charts from our Housing Sector data:
Note that the above chart has merely returned to year-over-year neutral territory, although saying that is really something compared to where it index was in late spring. And looking at the past couple of weeks of consumer demand for listing services:
The changes in demand for listings could be a sign of a plateau, and it has been mirrored (again with a slight lag) in demand for new loan services:
But the new record mortgage rates have finally created some life in demand for refinancing:
We will be watching these charts closely over the next few weeks. Something is clearly happening that the markets (and BEA) probably won’t notice for a very long time.
Analysis Blog articles by Rick Davis