June 2011 JOLTS Shows Little Growth Pressure on Employment

Jobs openings in the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) serves as a predictor of future jobs growth.  In May 2011, it was generally unchanged from April.

The graph Econintersect produced last month (below) shows the relevance of JOLTS job opening data to private sector non-farm jobs since 2000.

[click to enlarge]

JOLTS job opening trends can either lead or turn with non-farm private payrolls.  If the May 2011 is unchanged, the year-over-year data will look less good.

The JOLTS job opening data is trending down (less good) even thought it seemly improved on the year-over-year graphic (above top).  This indicates, in the months to come, growth of non-farm jobs should continue to be weak.  The separations rate declined in June – but so did the number of hires.

JOLTS is telling us there is no upward pressure on the labor market.  Job openings are unchanged, and hires and fires are equal.   JOLTS is telling us nothing more than we understood from the terrible June jobs report (analysis here).

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