US Census says manufacturing new order contracted 0.8% month-over-month in June 2011. Econintersect concurs and believes manufacturing could have fallen up to 2.4% – but that is a glass half empty view.
The other – more optimistic – view is that manufacturing is up solidly 12.5% (5.5% inflation adjusted) year-over-year.
Econintersect sees few recession warning signs in this data. But this means little for employment – manufacturing provides less than 10% of employment in the economy.
The health of manufacturing is gauged by the growth of unfilled orders. This month our analysis adjusted the order value to inflation – to see if the number of “widgets” under order was actually increasing.
The total value of unfilled orders declined month-over-month (blue line), and the year-over-year inflation adjusted change has been negative all of 2011. Likely this is demonstrating too much capacity combined with growth less than anticipated.
June 2011 Durable Goods Says the Economy Has Stalled by Steven Hansen
Nice Rebound for Business Sales In May 2011 by Steven Hansen
Retail Sales Show Strength in June 2011 by Steven Hansen
Nice Improvement in Wholesale Sales in May 2011 by Steven Hansen
Auto Sales are Dismal by John Lounsbury
The Consumer is Bouncing Along the Bottom by Rick Davis
Consumers are Coming to Terms with Frugality by Rick Davis
Strong Retail Sales Do Not Point to Real Economic Growth by Steven Hansen