Manufacturing Continues to Resist Contraction in June 2011

US Census says manufacturing new order contracted 0.8% month-over-month in June 2011.  Econintersect concurs and believes manufacturing could have fallen up to 2.4% – but that is a glass half empty view.

The other – more optimistic – view is that manufacturing is up solidly 12.5% (5.5% inflation adjusted) year-over-year.

Econintersect sees few recession warning signs in this data.  But this means little for employment – manufacturing provides less than 10% of employment in the economy.

The health of manufacturing is gauged by the growth of unfilled orders.  This month our analysis adjusted the order value to inflation – to see if the number of “widgets” under order was actually increasing.

The total value of unfilled orders declined month-over-month (blue line), and the year-over-year inflation adjusted change has been negative all of 2011.  Likely this is demonstrating too much capacity combined with growth less than anticipated.

Related Articles

June 2011 Durable Goods Says the Economy Has Stalled by Steven Hansen

Philly Fed Business Outlook in July 2011 Seems Worse Than Report Suggests by Steven Hansen

Nice Rebound for Business Sales In May 2011 by Steven Hansen

Retail Sales Show Strength in June 2011 by Steven Hansen

Nice Improvement in Wholesale Sales in May 2011 by Steven Hansen

Auto Sales are Dismal by John Lounsbury

The Consumer is Bouncing Along the Bottom by Rick Davis

Consumers are Coming to Terms with Frugality by Rick Davis

A Significant Reason Retail Sales do not Indicate Recovery by Doug Short

Strong Retail Sales Do Not Point to Real Economic Growth by Steven Hansen

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