May 2011 JOLTS: Poor Jobs Growth Coming?

Econintersect analyzes deeply a generally ignored BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) as it acts as a predictor of future jobs growth.  In May 2011, it was generally unchanged from April.

The graph below shows the relevance of JOLTS job opening data.

JOLTS job opening trends either lead or turn with non-farm private payrolls.  If the May 2011 is unchanged, the year-over-year data will look less good.

The JOLTS job opening data is trending down (less good).  This indicates, in the months to come, growth of non-farm jobs should continue to be weak.  But the separations portion of the JOLTS data do not confirm this weakness yet.

Separations still remain in an uptrend despite separations declining Y-o-Y growth rate in May.  Separations may be at the start of a down trend, but this will not be known for several months.  So overall, this JOLTS report is conflicted – and no clear trend can be predicted for non-farm payroll using the May 2011 JOLTS survey.

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