Personal Income & Expenditures Increased in August 2010

Personal Income and Expenditures both rose 0.2% MoM (chained dollars and seasonally adjusted) for the month of August 2010.  Econintersect’s analysis follows the headline press release from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce) which states in part:

Headline Press Release

Personal income increased $59.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $52.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.3 billion, or 0.4 percent.  In July, personal income increased $22.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $5.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $41.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income increased 0.2 percent in August, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in July.  Real PCE increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in July.

–                                                           2010
–                                                           Apr.    May     June    July    Aug.
–                                                      (Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars        0.4     0.4     0.0     0.2     0.5
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars                                     0.5     0.4     0.0     0.0     0.5
Chained (2005) dollars                       0.5     0.4     0.2    -0.2     0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars                                     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.4     0.4
Chained (2005) dollars                        0.0     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.2

Wages and salaries

Private wage and salary disbursements increased $26.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $25.7 billion in July.  Goods-producing industries’ payrolls increased $6.7 billion, compared with an increase of $6.2 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.9 billion, compared with an increase of $4.8 billion.  Services-producing industries’ payrolls increased $19.4 billion, compared with an increase of $19.5 billion.

Government wage and salary disbursements decreased $5.2 billion in August, in contrast to an increase of $0.8 billion in July.  Increased furloughs of state and local workers reduced state and local payrolls by $3.9 billion at an annual rate in August, after a decrease in furloughs boosted payrolls by $2.0 billion in July.  Temporary Census workers boosted federal civilian payrolls by $0.9 billion at an annual rate in August, after boosting payrolls by $2.5 billion in July.

Other personal income

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $4.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $3.9 billion in July.

Proprietors’ income increased $10.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $2.6 billion in July.  Farm proprietors’ income increased $5.2 billion, the same increase as in July.  Nonfarm proprietors’ income increased $4.8 billion in August, in contrast to a decrease of $2.6 billion in July.

Rental income of persons increased $2.5 billion in August, compared with an increase of $2.2 billion in July.  Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) decreased $11.0 billion, compared with a decrease of $10.3 billion.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $35.8 billion in August, compared with an increase of $0.5 billion in July.  The August change reflected the effects of unemployment compensation legislation,which boosted special unemployment insurance benefits by $20.6 billion at an annual rate in August, after reducing benefits by $17.1 billion in July.

Contributions for government social insurance — a subtraction in calculating personal income — increased $3.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion in July.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $7.2 billion in August, compared with an increase of $16.3 billion in July.  Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes — increased $52.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, in August, compared with an increase of 5.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in July.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays — PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments — increased $40.1 billion in August, the same increase as in July.  PCE increased $41.3 billion in August, compared with an increase of $41.4 billion in July.

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $661.9 billion in August, compared with $650.0 billion in July.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.8 percent in August, compared with 5.7 percent in July.  For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp

Real DPI, real PCE and price index

Real DPI — DPI adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.2 percent in August, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in July.

Real PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as in July.  Purchases of durable goods decreased 0.2 percent in August, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent in July.  Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent.  Purchases of services increased less than 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

PCE price index — The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as in July.  The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in August, the same increase as in July.

Analysis

The constraints in doing a first class analysis is inability to access non-adjusted data.  The noise is great in the released seasonally adjusted data demonstrating the seasonal adjustment factors are not working as they should.  It is difficult in periods following a recession establishing what those seasonal factors should be.

An analyst gets the feel that incomes and expenditures are improving – but saying with any conviction the exact improvement is impossible.

It can be observed that using chained (equal value) dollars, real disposable personal income on a per capita basis is not growing.  In the world of economics, this is a limitation on GDP growth as the more money people receive, the more money they can spend.  Of interest is that personal income expenditures have been growing on a per capita basis.

August 2010 personal income and expenditure data will have a positive effect on 3Q2010 GDP.

Personal income increased $59.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $52.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.3 billion, or 0.4 percent.  In July,
personal income increased $22.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $5.7 billion, or less than 0.1
percent, and PCE increased $41.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income increased 0.2 percent in August, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2
percent in July.  Real PCE increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in July.

                                        2010
                                        Apr.            May             June            July            Aug.
                                                       (Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars        0.4             0.4             0.0             0.2             0.5
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars                        0.5             0.4             0.0             0.0             0.5
 Chained (2005) dollars                 0.5             0.4             0.2            -0.2             0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars                        0.0             0.2             0.0             0.4             0.4
 Chained (2005) dollars                 0.0             0.3             0.1             0.2             0.2

                                Wages and salaries

Private wage and salary disbursements increased $26.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of
$25.7 billion in July.  Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $6.7 billion, compared with an
increase of $6.2 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.9 billion, compared with an increase of
$4.8 billion.  Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $19.4 billion, compared with an
increase of $19.5 billion.

Government wage and salary disbursements decreased $5.2 billion in August, in contrast to an increase
of $0.8 billion in July.  Increased furloughs of state and local workers reduced state and local
payrolls by $3.9 billion at an annual rate in August, after a decrease in furloughs boosted payrolls
by $2.0 billion in July.  Temporary Census workers boosted federal civilian payrolls by $0.9 billion
at an annual rate in August, after boosting payrolls by $2.5 billion in July.

                                Other personal income

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $4.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $3.9 billion in July.

Proprietors' income increased $10.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $2.6 billion in
July.  Farm proprietors' income increased $5.2 billion, the same increase as in July.  Nonfarm
proprietors' income increased $4.8 billion in August, in contrast to a decrease of $2.6 billion in July.

Rental income of persons increased $2.5 billion in August, compared with an increase of $2.2 billion
in July.  Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income)
decreased $11.0 billion, compared with a decrease of $10.3 billion.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $35.8 billion in August, compared with an increase of
$0.5 billion in July.  The August change reflected the effects of unemployment compensation legislation,
which boosted special unemployment insurance benefits by $20.6 billion at an annual rate in
August, after reducing benefits by $17.1 billion in July.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --
increased $3.1 billion in August, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion in July.

                                Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $7.2 billion in August, compared with an increase of $16.3 billion in
July.  Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased
$52.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, in August, compared with an increase of 5.7 billion, or less than
0.1 percent, in July.

                                Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments --
increased $40.1 billion in August, the same increase as in July.  PCE increased $41.3 billion in August,
compared with an increase of $41.4 billion in July.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $661.9 billion in August, compared with
$650.0 billion in July.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was
5.8 percent in August, compared with 5.7 percent in July.  For a comparison of personal saving
in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s
flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp

                                Real DPI, real PCE and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in August, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.2 percent in July.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase
as in July.  Purchases of durable goods decreased 0.2 percent in August, in contrast to an increase of
1.3 percent in July.  Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease
of 0.3 percent.  Purchases of services increased less than 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of
0.2 percent.

PCE price index -- The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as in
July.  The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in August, the same increase as
in July.

                                Revisions

Estimates have been revised for April through July.  Changes in personal income, current-dollar and
chained (2005) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (2005) dollar PCE for June and July
-- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

                                                                Change from preceding month
                                        June                                      July
                                        Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised
                                       (Billions of dollars)      (Percent)      (Billions of dollars)      (Percent)
Personal Income:
 Current dollars                       -2.7        1.5       0.0        0.0       30.0       22.0      0.2        0.2
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars                       -0.2        4.0       0.0        0.0       17.6       5.7       0.2        0.0
 Chained (2005) dollars                 14.3       16.6      0.1        0.2      -8.2       -17.8     -0.1       -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars                       -4.0       -3.3       0.0        0.0       44.1       41.4      0.4        0.4
 Chained (2005) dollars                 9.6        8.8       0.1        0.1       17.9       16.5      0.2        0.2

BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news
releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov.  By visiting the site, you can also
subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
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