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Category Archives: China
Opimizing Investment
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets In my May article I referred to a very interesting IMF paper written by Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan. The study, “China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth: Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency”, … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Uncategorized, macroeconomics
Tagged capital stock, China, China investment, China rebalancing, labor, michael pettis, physical capital, social capital
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The Mother of All Painted-In Corners
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline Alice laughed. She said, “There’s no use trying – one can’t believe impossible things.” The queen said, “I daresay you haven’t had much practice. When I was younger, I always did it for … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Japan, macroeconomics, money
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, exports, Federal Reserve, GDP, industrial production, inflation, inventories, Japan, Japan national debt, John Mauldin, new orders, PPI, recession, recovery, trade balance, wholesale sales
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Austerity and Growth Perspectives: Europe, the IMF, China, and the US (Part: 2)
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Note: A version of this article was published by Deutsche Welle, 23 May 2013. Introduction Part. 1 of this report highlighted the positions of the IMF and Europe on the austerity/growth trade-off as reflected … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Elliott Morss, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, IMF, inflation, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
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Country Income Shares in PPP
by Jayati Ghosh, Triplecrisis.com The UNDP’s latest Human Development Report 2013 (entitled “The rise of the South”) has one particularly striking chart that it uses to make the point about the recent growing economic significance of some “emerging” nations. In … Continue reading
Posted in China, GDP, India, International Economic data, Personal Income and Consumption
Tagged Brazil, China, consumer confidence, Economy, GDP, global gdp, India, Jayati Ghosh, ppp
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Austerity and Growth Perspectives: Europe, the IMF, China, and the US
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance A version of this article appeared in DW, 08 May 2013. Introduction Over the last two decades, the trade-offs between more rapid economic growth and the need for governments to keep their financial houses … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, GDP, International Economic data
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Elliott Morss, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery
1 Comment
Feedback Loops, Delusions and Crises
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets Early this month Martin Wolf had another of his very interesting articles, this time on China, which I think suggests some of the concerns we must have about the upcoming adjustment. Wolf argues that it … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, money
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, GDP, michael pettis, world economy
1 Comment
Stratfor: Tangled Partnership Between China and North Korea
by Rodger Baker, Vice President of East Asia Analysis, Stratfor China appears to be growing frustrated with North Korea’s behavior, perhaps to the point of changing its long-standing support for Pyongyang. As North Korea’s largest economic sponsor, Beijing has provided … Continue reading
Stratfor: The Ferocious, Weak and Crazy North Korean Strategy
By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor Note: George Friedman originally wrote this Geopolitical Weekly on North Korea’s nuclear strategy on Jan. 29. More than two months later, the geopolitical contours of the still-evolving crisis have become more clear, so … Continue reading
Stratfor: Beyond the Post-Cold War World, Balancing Economic and Military Power
By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor An era ended when the Soviet Union collapsed on Dec. 31, 1991. The confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union defined the Cold War period. The collapse of Europe framed that … Continue reading
A Brief History of the Chinese Growth Model
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets As regular readers know I have often argued that the Chinese development model is an old one, and can trace its roots at least as far back as the “American System” of the 1820s … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, International Economic data, money
Tagged China, China development model, Economy, GDP, michael pettis
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Stratfor: Tolerating Aggressive Chinese Behavior
By Rodger Baker, Stratfor Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has warned Beijing that Tokyo is losing patience with China’s assertive maritime behavior in the East and South China seas, suggesting China consider the economic and military consequences of its actions. … Continue reading
Posted in China, Japan
Tagged cyber, Japan, Rodger Baker, south china sea, Stratfor, usa
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The 2013 Economic Outlook – Bright Sunshine for the U.S., Periods of Cloud Abroad
by Paul Kasriel, The Econtrarian Author’s Warning: Do not attempt reading the entirety of this commentary without the aid of your stimulant of choice. I apologize for the length of the commentary, but believed it necessary in order to inform … Continue reading
Stratfor: The North Korean Strategy Is Ferocious, Weak and Crazy
By George Friedman, Stratfor Founder and Chief Executive Officer North Korea’s state-run media reported Sunday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country’s top security officials to take “substantial and high-profile important state measures,” which has been … Continue reading
Posted in China, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged bomb, Japan, north korea, nuclear, usa, war
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China – the Next Economic Superpower? Better Hedge Your Bets
Written by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction In earlier postings, I have examined global power from both “empire” and “fragmentation” perspectives. Empire implies concentrated power, usually for economic gain – not just for the acquisition of power per se. In … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Elliott Morss, GDP
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The Appreciating Renminbi
by Philippe Bacchetta, Kenza Benhima and Yannick Kalantzis, voxeu.org China is perennially accused of currency manipulation. Yet, this article argues that a weak currency value doesn’t necessarily reflect currency manipulation. China is a fast growing economy with strong financial frictions … Continue reading
Recognizing the Need for Economic Adjustment
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six percent, it … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, China, GDP
Tagged China, Economy, GDP, michael pettis
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The New Era of Oil Renaissance
by EconMatters In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that … Continue reading
Posted in China, Commodities, Energy, GDP, Government
Tagged EconMatters, Economy, GDP, industrial production, OIL, trade balance
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China and the US: What the Future Holds
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Matthew Nimetz, an eminent scholar, lawyer, venture capital executive, and former senior US/UN diplomat, recently presented a thought-provoking paper at a joint meeting the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and the China … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, China, Trade Data, macroeconomics
Tagged China, Elliott Morrs, exports, Federal Reserve, GDP, imports, industrial production, manufacturing, usa
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Stratfor: Geopolitics of Shale
By Robert D. Kaplan, Chief Geopolitical Analyst According to the elite newspapers and journals of opinion, the future of foreign affairs mainly rests on ideas: the moral impetus for humanitarian intervention, the various theories governing exchange rates and debt rebalancing … Continue reading
Posted in China, Energy, macroeconomics
Tagged energy, Robert D. Kaplan, shale, Stratfor, world
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