Econintersect Analysis Blog
Category Archives: ECRI WLI
by Jeff Miller This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge … Continue reading
By Georg Vrba, P.E., Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com [Editor’s Note: In forecasting the economy, no proven dynamic forecasting model exists. Econintersect has a benign opinion of leading indices – and views them like ground hogs – a concoction of logical and illogical … Continue reading
Written by Steven Hansen This past week I have continued to ponder my friend Lakshman Achuthan’s renewed recession call where he stated: For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the … Continue reading
The September 2011 release The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) values show the economy is and will be growing. Yet, using unseen analysis – the originators of the index continue to talk it down. Continue reading
Is a balanced budget is necessary for the economic health of a country. Is it possible a certain amount of deficit drives a modern economy? These questions are so complex that data can be selected to support either conclusion.
The consensus (or average) of economic indicators is for continued slow growth, with Main Street factors lagging Wall Street. Continue reading
Economic data is still indicating very slow growth. Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic due to distortions from the Great Recession and the New Normal. Continue reading
There was an abundance of economic indicators released this week, and taken together – they offered little insight into the future. The latest Fed FOMC minutes were released – ditto.
Weekly economic review: The recession ended 15 months ago but employment shows no signs of significant recognition of the event. Other areas of recovery are also weak. Continue reading
This weeks economic data continued to find the seasonal adjustment factors are not working properly. In most cases, if you compare the current data to pre-Great Recession data – one conclusion can be drawn. While if you compare the data to New Normal, another conclusion can be drawn. Industrial Production data was particularly effected. Continue reading
Open trade borders leak (money flows). Stimulus done in one country alone will benefit its trading partners more – as they did not have to invest any capital to be stimulated.
The markets wait for the unpredictable BLS to publish its data. Their methodology produces a lot of monthly volatility. Their adjustment factors create too many jobs. The August 2010 BLS jobs report did not disappoint this opinion. Continue reading