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Category Archives: ECRI WLI
Business Cycle Forecasting: The First-Rate Results of Robert F. Dieli
by Jeff Miller This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, ECRI WLI, Economics, economic predictions
Tagged business cycle, Economy, ECRI, Federal Reserve, GDP, Jeff Miller, recession, recovery, Robert F. Dieli
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Can ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index be Trusted?
By Georg Vrba, P.E., Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com [Editor’s Note: In forecasting the economy, no proven dynamic forecasting model exists. Econintersect has a benign opinion of leading indices – and views them like ground hogs – a concoction of logical and illogical … Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI
Tagged Conference Board, Economy, ECRI, Georg Vrba, index, leading, WLI
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Economy Continues to Grow Under the Shadow of Recession
Written by Steven Hansen This past week I have continued to ponder my friend Lakshman Achuthan’s renewed recession call where he stated: For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the … Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged Economy, ECRI, Lakshman Achuthan, recession, Steven Hansen, unemployment, weekly economic summary, weekly review
2 Comments
September 2011 Leading Economic Index Shows Growth to Continue
The September 2011 release The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) values show the economy is and will be growing. Yet, using unseen analysis – the originators of the index continue to talk it down. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, LEI
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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Is A Budget Deficit Necessary for an Economy?
Is a balanced budget is necessary for the economic health of a country. Is it possible a certain amount of deficit drives a modern economy? These questions are so complex that data can be selected to support either conclusion.
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Posted in ECRI WLI, Employment, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged budget deficit, ECRI, employment, GDP, intitial claims, unemployment
1 Comment
December Economic Outlook Slightly Improved
The consensus (or average) of economic indicators is for continued slow growth, with Main Street factors lagging Wall Street. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, LEI, Leading Indicators
Tagged CMI, Conference Board, Consumer Metrics Institute, ECRI, EEI, recovery
3 Comments
Seasonal Adjustment Factors Distorting Analysis
Economic data is still indicating very slow growth. Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic due to distortions from the Great Recession and the New Normal. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged bank failures, economic indicators, ECRI, employment, unemployment, weekly review
4 Comments
The Crystal Ball is All Fogged Up
There was an abundance of economic indicators released this week, and taken together – they offered little insight into the future. The latest Fed FOMC minutes were released – ditto.
Posted in ECRI WLI, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged economic indicators, ECRI, Fed, FOMC
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Recession Is Over – Now Where Are the Jobs
Weekly economic review: The recession ended 15 months ago but employment shows no signs of significant recognition of the event. Other areas of recovery are also weak. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Employment, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged bank failures, durable goods, ECRI, employment, housing, NBER
2 Comments
Manufacturing Green Shoot Is Wilting
This weeks economic data continued to find the seasonal adjustment factors are not working properly. In most cases, if you compare the current data to pre-Great Recession data – one conclusion can be drawn. While if you compare the data to New Normal, another conclusion can be drawn. Industrial Production data was particularly effected. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Manufacturing, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged aaii, business sales, Ceridian, containers, CPI, Fed surveys, industrial production, Michigan, PPI, retail sales, sentiment, shipping
2 Comments
Is the Trade Balance Making Any Stimulus Ineffective?
Open trade borders leak (money flows). Stimulus done in one country alone will benefit its trading partners more – as they did not have to invest any capital to be stimulated.
Posted in ECRI WLI, Trade Data, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged economic index, free trade, Kearns, Krugman, Tonelson
6 Comments
Notice: Use BLS Data at Your Own Peril + Weekly Economic Summary
The markets wait for the unpredictable BLS to publish its data. Their methodology produces a lot of monthly volatility. Their adjustment factors create too many jobs. The August 2010 BLS jobs report did not disappoint this opinion. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Employment, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged ADP, BLS, ECRI, infrastructure, jobs, NFIB, unemployment, WLI
4 Comments
Economy and GDP
Economic releases w/e 27 August 2010 continue to paint an economy with slowing but positive growth. GDP for 2Q2010 was revised downward to 1.6% annualized. Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Federal Reserve, GDP, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged bank failures, bankruptcies, depression, double dip, GDP, government spending, NIPA, personal income, private investment, recession
1 Comment
