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Category Archives: Economic Indicators (USA)
Should You Tell Your Kid to Drop Out of High School?
Written by Steven Hansen There have been several posts over the past few weeks discussing college / university education. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius stated: [T]he faster job growth among college graduates is entirely due to faster growth in the … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Weekly Economic Summary, aa syndication
Tagged college, dropout, Economy, employment, GDP, high school, recovery, Steven Hansen, unemployment, university, weekly review
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Initial Claims Not Great but Not as Bad as Claimed
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The media exhibited much consternation today as economists’ consensus guess on first time unemployment claims turned out to be way too optimistic this week. That raised two questions in my mind. Was the number … Continue reading
Posted in Employment
Tagged dol, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Preliminary May 2013 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Highest Since July 2007
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary number for May came in at 83.7, a major advance over the April final reading of 76.4. This is the highest level since July of 2007, prior to … Continue reading
April 2013 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Continuing Economic Expansion
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.6% in April to 95.0 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up, and one month is not a trend. This … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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May 2013 Philly Fed Business Outlook Goes Negative
Written by Steven Hansen The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey fell into negative (contraction) – after two months in positive territory. This survey has been negative for 9 of the last 13 months. Key element new orders slipped further into … Continue reading
Posted in Manufacturing, Retail & Business Sales, aa syndication
Tagged backlog, business, conditions, manufacturing, new orders, orders, Philly Fed, philly_man, Steven Hansen
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Residential Building Sector Growth Continues in April 2013
Written by Steven Hansen Residential building permits and construction completions in April 2013 continues to show the industry growth. Our analysis paints a slightly different picture than the headline data. Apartment building permits comparing April 2012 to April 2013 are … Continue reading
April 2013 CPI Moderates to 1.1% Year-over-Year Inflation
by Doug Short and Steven Hansen The April 2013 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate fell from 1.5% to 1.1% . Core inflation (CPI less food and energy) fell slightly also from 1.9% to 1.7%. The dynamics were large … Continue reading
April 2013 Sea Container Counts Are Still Contracting
Written by Steven Hansen For the second month in a row, both import and export container counts are contracting year-over-year – comparing same months in 2012 and 2013. Economically intuitive imports however are “less bad” (but are still growing year-to-date); … Continue reading
Posted in Transport, aa syndication
Tagged container, exports, imports, rail, shipping, Steven Hansen, traffic, truck
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Schizophrenic U.S. Housing Market
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (Part 6) “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com Click to enlarge We thought it would be amusing to start this discussion with the latest “Smoke … Continue reading
April 2013 Industrial Production Soft – But Still In a Growth Trend
Written by Steven Hansen The headlines say Industrial Production (IP) declined 0.5% in April 2013 and up 1.9% year-over-year. Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP was also showed a decline of 0.5% month-over-month but the year-over-year was … Continue reading
May 2013 Empire State Survey Goes Negative – Under Expectations
Written by Steven Hansen The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (manufacturing in New York State) in May 2013 shows manufacturing is contracting after expanding for the previous three months in a row. This noisy index has moved from 17.1 (May), 2.3 … Continue reading
April 2013 Producer Price Index Shows Almost No Year-over-Year Growth
Written by Steven Hansen The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation is disappearing.. The BLS reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) finished goods prices year-over-year inflation rate fell from 1.1% in March to 0.6% in April 2013 – with the … Continue reading
What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk?
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com Note from dshort: I’ve updated this commentary to include the latest labor force data in May’s release of the April employment report. Every Thursday I post an update on weekly unemployment claims shortly after the … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, GDP
Tagged Doug Short, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Export / Import Price Deflation in April 2013
Written by Steven Hansen In April 2013, year-over-year price deflation continues in import prices for 11 of the last 12 months . Export price price are also deflating this month: with imports down 0.5% month-over-month, down 2.6% year-over-year and exports … Continue reading
Posted in Prices - PPI, CPI and More, aa syndication
Tagged agriculture, BLS, commodities, export, food, import, OIL, prices, Steven Hansen
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Retail Sales Stay Right on Trend but Economists Get It Wrong Again
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Retail sales grew modestly and on trend in April. There was no evidence of either a slowing economy or one that is overheating and about to cause conventional inflation measures to move higher. At … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Retail & Business Sales, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Economy, Federal Reserve, gasoline, GDP, Lee Adler, retail sales, trade balance
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March 2013 Business Inventories and Sales Continues to Show Little Improvement
Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect‘s analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) for March 2013 is closer to the headline data. business sales with this month’s data is continuing to trend less good (positive growth, slower … Continue reading
Retail Sales Stronger than Expected in April 2013
Written by Steven Hansen Retail sales came in much stronger than anticipated. the unadjusted data was stronger than the seasonally adjusted data this month; the headline numbers show backward revisions were slightly upward; the weakness in the data was gasoline … Continue reading
Posted in Retail & Business Sales, aa syndication
Tagged recovery, retail sales, Steven Hansen, u.s. census bureau
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Housing Smoke and Mirrors (5) – “Zombie Fed”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4), it was suggested that the bad eggs in the 2005 and 2009 Mortgage Vintages were hatching; and creating a growing systemic threat. Click to enlarge The Federal Reserve and … Continue reading
US Consumers Keep Spending Despite Reduced Pay
by Warren Mosler This article was originally published by Mosler Economics (Apr. 29, 2013) This is the current thinking, but the pieces don’t add up? Hoping I’m being too negative here… Comments below:
Using the Jobs Report To Forecast the Economy
Written by Steven Hansen It continues to amaze me of the love affair between Wall Street and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report – aka the Jobs Report. It is nearly a worthless data set in real … Continue reading
Posted in Weekly Economic Summary, aa syndication
Tagged BLS, Economy, employment, jobs, Steven Hansen, weekly review
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