Category Archives: Weekly Economic Summary

weekly economic summary

Should You Tell Your Kid to Drop Out of High School?

Written by Steven Hansen There have been several posts over the past few weeks discussing college / university education. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius stated: [T]he faster job growth among college graduates is entirely due to faster growth in the … Continue reading

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Using the Jobs Report To Forecast the Economy

Written by Steven Hansen It continues to amaze me of the love affair between Wall Street and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report – aka the Jobs Report.  It is nearly a worthless data set in real … Continue reading

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Trickle Down Corporate Profits – NOT!

Written by Steven Hansen This week Personal Consumption data was released showing weak (but above expectations) growth.

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Congress Considers Screwing Seniors

Written by Steven Hansen How many of the elderly live totally on social security benefits live better and better every year?  It seems that social security is designed as a declining real benefit program. Yet the CBO in Testimony on … Continue reading

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Screwing the American Economy by Screwing Its Young

Written by Steven Hansen The inordinate growth of student loans – and its effect on the economy – is killing consumption (autos) and the housing sector.  This is no short term dynamic, but will effect the economy for decades. [click … Continue reading

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How Will Ending Quantitative Easing Effect the Markets?

Written by Steven Hansen The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes were released earlier this week indicating many (few, majority, most, all?) members were leaning towards terminating some aspects of the current quantitative easing (QE) purchases sooner rather than later. ….A … Continue reading

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What About a Market Correction?

Written by Steven Hansen This week, Marc Faber (aka Dr. Doom) stated on CNBC: I don’t think the market is as overbought as it was in ’87, so I don’t expect a crash. But I think for the time being, … Continue reading

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Underlying Trends Say The Economy Is Growing Faster

Written by Steven Hansen Last week, my weekend “think piece” showed that the unadjusted data was not (yet) confirming an economic expansion.  This week I shift to Econintersect‘s economic forecast which was published today: The index is now forecasting a … Continue reading

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The Economy Is Improving – Really?

Written by Steven Hansen The Federal Reserve’s FOMC believes the economy’s rate of expansion is improving.  It is not that the economy MAY be expanding at a faster rate – but the evidence is mixed to negative at this point.  … Continue reading

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Is USA Government Debt Finally Under Control?

Written by Steven Hansen You should be concerned with those who claim debt is subsiding, and therefore the government should continue high spending to stimulate the economy. Paul Krugman in a New York Times Op-Ed stated: But after peaking in … Continue reading

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Does Government Austerity Cause Recession?

Written by Steven Hansen Economists continue to warn that austerity is not the way to go for government spending.  I am open to using austerity as one of the tools to balance an economy – just not the primary tool. … Continue reading

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Sequester: No Matter What Happens, It Is Wrong

Written by Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury CBO [Congressional Budget Office] requests appropriations of $45.7 million for fiscal year 2014. That amount represents an increase of $1.6 million, or 3.7 percent, from the $44.1 million (on an annualized basis) provided … Continue reading

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Oil Prices Will Not Moderate for Long Periods of Time

Written by Steven Hansen Recent releases from the International Energy Agency tell of moderating growth rate of the global demand for oil – which was based on lower economic growth projections.  And promises of “fracking” to boost oil supply are … Continue reading

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Beware of Month-over-Month Statistics

Written by Steven Hansen Most readers know I have issues with the US Census headline data.  The data does not add up against itself.  When I was a negotiator, one of the tools used is to run your opponent in … Continue reading

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Housing: Recovering, But Big Headwinds Persist

Written by Steven Hansen The nascent recovery of new and existing home sales may be losing some steam. New home December 2012 sales were the worst year-over-year gain in 2012. Pending Home December 2012 index was the worst year-over-year gain … Continue reading

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Does Taxation Kill Economic Growth?

Written by Steven Hansen Of course taxation correlates to economic growth.  One could generalize and say the higher the tax rate, the slower the growth.  Yet this belief is too simplistic to be a litmus test for economic decisions. The … Continue reading

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Are Economic Headwinds Imagined?

Written by Steven Hansen What are the commonly listed headwinds to economic growth in the USA? baby boomers not spending but saving for retirement; European recession; Divided government with no direction. The divided government should be a headwind as they … Continue reading

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Recession Markers Have Evaporated Except for ECRI’s Recession

Written by Steven Hansen This past  week Industrial Production (analysis here) finally exceeded the July peaks, and now all of the economic broad measures are at 2012 highs.  On 07 December 2012, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based  … Continue reading

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Old People Distorting Understanding Of the Employment Situation

Written by Steven Hansen Ask 10 people what is the definition of unemployment, and you will get 10 different answers.  The tragedy is that it is likely no person’s definition will match the definition used in the creation of the … Continue reading

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The Real Cliff of Concern – Loss of the Middle Class

Written by Steven Hansen A recent Chart of the Day entitled “The 5% Of American Households That The Fiscal Cliff Debate Is Really About” got me thinking – is the problem “really” that the rich are taxed too little? “Compare … Continue reading

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