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Category Archives: Studies
The Liquidity Trap In the IS/MY Model (“Sitges Equation”)
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 I have recently built a small model which builds on the “Sitges” balance of payments identity. “Sitges” – originally a little town close to Barcelona – helps me to remember that the change in debt of … Continue reading
Posted in Government, Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, government spending, inflation
1 Comment
Understanding Causation: Debt and Growth
Debt-to-GDP Ratios and Growth: Country Heterogeneity and Reverse Causation, the Case of Japan (Ultra Wonky) by Matthew Berg and Brian Hartley, New Economic Perspectives Originally posted at New Economic Perspectives, 29 April 2013 Summary We find that the correlation between … Continue reading
Judgments of Paris, Princeton, and Lenox, Part 2
Written by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction It was striking in 1976 when Californian wines “sort of” beat French wines in Paris tastings. That tasting was memorialized in George Taber’s great book Judgment of Paris. I say “sort of” … Continue reading
U.S. Drug Policies: Lessons from Prohibition
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Consider first that a drug is “a chemical substance that affects the processes of the mind or body”. That means nicotine, cocaine, opium, alcohol, heroin, amphetamines and food (yes – food) are drugs. … Continue reading
Posted in Studies
Tagged drug policy, drugs, Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance, prohibition
2 Comments
Teaching Macroeconomics to Undergraduates in The Post-Crisis Era
How Should Macroeconomics Be Taught to Undergraduates in The Post-Crisis Era? A Concrete Proposal by Wendy Carlin, Voxeu.org Is economic teaching keeping up with the changing economy? This column presents a new way of teaching economics in light of the … Continue reading
Adding Reverse Mortgages to Retirement Portfolios
by Ricardo Cornejo, GEI Associate Reverse mortgages have proved to be the ultimate safety net for homeowner senior citizens as they walk into retirement without much cash into their pockets. Reverse mortgages provide monthly payments, a line of credit or … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, NBER, Studies, aa syndication
Tagged debt, foreclosures, hecm, housing, HUD, loan defaults, mortgage market, retirement, reverse mortgages, Ricardo Cornejo, senior citizens, senior debt
1 Comment
Is There Increasing Regional Inequality in China?
by John Gibson and Chao Li, Voxeu A growing literature uses sub-national data from China to measure trends in regional inequality and to test models of economic growth and convergence. Most published studies use provincial-level data although finer spatial scales, … Continue reading
Posted in China, Studies
Tagged Chao Li, China, GDP inequality in China, John Gibson
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Dealing with Territorial Claims in a Thawing Arctic
by Ricardo Cornejo, GEI Associate Santa Claus’s days of reigning over a sovereign and independent North Pole are ceasing to exist as temperatures in the Arctic Circle warm up and the natural resource, land grab by surrounding countries nears. Danish … Continue reading
Global Warming Is Here, Getting Worse – What Should We Do?
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Even some skeptics agree: global warming, caused primarily by CO2 emissions, is here and will get worse. Are the energy options we have significant enough to make any meaningful difference in the destruction and … Continue reading
Posted in Studies
Tagged biomass, carbon dioxide, coal, Elliott Morss, extreme weather, global warming, greenhouse gases, natural gas, nuclear, renewables
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Obamacare: Will Insurance Pooling Lower Consumer Costs?
by Leemore Dafny, NBER Private health insurance plays a pivotal role in the U.S. healthcare system. Private insurers account for one out of every three dollars spent on healthcare, and even this figure understates the importance of the sector: many … Continue reading
Posted in Health Care, NBER, Studies
Tagged Affordable Care Act, insurance, insurance premiums, Leemore Dafny, NBER, obamacare, pooling, private insurance, tort reform
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The Unexplained Part of Public Debt
by Guest Authors Camila FS Campos, Dany Jaimovich and Ugo Panizza, Voxeu How do countries get into debt? And how does this debt rise so fast? The short answer may be obvious, but this column shows that the longer answer … Continue reading
Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli
by Jeff Miller Since last May I have been reviewing the record of those who forecast the business cycle. I developed a stringent list of requirements, “Jeff’s Acid Test,” and I frequently invited nominations. Here were the stated requirements: Openness … Continue reading
Tax Policy to Aid Recovery and Growth
by Guest Author Christopher Heady, Professor of Economics, University of Kent Originally posted at VoxEU 14 March 2011 and reposted here with written permission. Have governments been cutting the right taxes? And are they choosing the best taxes to increase … Continue reading
Posted in Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged Christopher Heady, growth, income redistribution, recovery, regressive tax, tax policy, taxes
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Which States Are Growing More Competitive?
By Hank Robison and Rob Sentz, Economic Modeling Specialists Inc.
In many ways, individual U.S. states are like 50 laboratories where differing public policy, industry focus, and economic development strategies are tried and tested. Different approaches yield different results and some states become more competitive – gaining a larger share of total job creation — while others struggle and lose share. This phenomenon has been evident over the past few years as our nation struggles to recover. Some states have been doing quite well while others are still limping along.
In this post we have produced a side-by-side analysis of every state to show how they stack up against each other. The goal is to see which states are becoming more competitive (that is, gaining a larger share of the total job creation), and which are losing their share of the jobs being created. The table and graphic each rank the states based on the overall competitive effect and what percentage of jobs (from 2007-2011) are based on competitive effects. Continue reading
GSEs and the Housing Crisis: Studies Ignored
by Guest Author Fabius Maximus Summary: Among our most serious problems is the success of well-funded engines of propaganda at manipulating public opinion, making effective public policy reforms almost impossible. Here we examine one example, convincing Americans that the government … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Home Sales and Home Prices, Studies
Tagged Fabius Maximus, Fannie, FHA, FHFA, Freddie, GSE, housing bubble, housing crisis
2 Comments
Real Household Income
Preliminary examination of demographic data cannot explain much of the rise in real household income in the 1980s and 1990s. Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged baby boomers, Clinton, John Lounsbury, Reagan, real household income, women in the work force
5 Comments
Credit, Demand and Unemployment
The change in debt is related to the current level of economic activity—on both commodity and asset markets. This explains correlations between the rate of change of debt, the level of output (and hence of unemployment), and the level of asset prices. Continue reading
Posted in Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged credit, debt, demand, employment, Minsky, Schumpeter, steve keen, unemployment
2 Comments
Fiscal policy in developing countries: Escape from procyclicality
Many emerging market countries are now deemed less risky than so-called “advanced” countries. This column examines why this is the case and finds that the cyclicality of a country’s fiscal policy – a sign of its riskiness – is inversely correlated with the quality of the country’s institutions. Continue reading
