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Category Archives: Business News and Analysis
China and the US: What the Future Holds
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Matthew Nimetz, an eminent scholar, lawyer, venture capital executive, and former senior US/UN diplomat, recently presented a thought-provoking paper at a joint meeting the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and the China … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, China, Trade Data, macroeconomics
Tagged China, Elliott Morrs, exports, Federal Reserve, GDP, imports, industrial production, manufacturing, usa
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Initial Unemployment Claims Back on Track
Actual Initial Claims Data Much Stronger Than Headline Number, Keeping Market On Fed’s Plot Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The Labor Department reported that the seasonally adjusted (SA) representation of first time claims for unemployment rose by 17,000 to 361,000 … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Employment
Tagged employment, Lee Adler, unemployment
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Last Week’s Unemployment Claims Data Was Not Good News
Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The media proclaimed that the initial unemployment claims report last week beat economists expectations, and was therefore good news. A hard look at the actual data says otherwise. The Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Employment
Tagged employment, Lee Adler, unemployment
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The Hollowing Out of America
by Steve Fraser, History News Network “Debtpocalypse” looms. Depending on who wins out in Washington, we’re told, we will either free-fall over the fiscal cliff or take a terrifying slide to the pit at the bottom. Grim as these scenarios … Continue reading
Marking Down Global Growth
Written by Stephen Swanson In October the IMF marked down its estimates for global growth. In its latest WEO it foresees global growth of 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013, down from 3.5 percent this year and … Continue reading
How to Build a Time Machine
by John Hussman, Hussman Funds With industrial production, capacity utilization, real disposable income, real personal consumption, real sales retail and food service sales, and real manufacturing and trade sales uniformly declining in their latest reports, coincident economic indicators – having … Continue reading
ISM Numbers Are Weak Before QE3 Cash Begins To Flow
Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The October headline seasonally adjusted aggregate Purchasing Managers Index reading of 49.5 fell far short of the consensus expectation of 51.2. I track the not seasonally adjusted ISM Manufacturing New Orders index as the kernel … Continue reading
First Time Unemployment Claims Drop After Sandy, But Jobs Growth Rate Slows
Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted (SA) first time claims for unemployment fell by 23,000 to 393,000 from a revised 416,000 (was 410,000) in the advance report for the week ended November 24, 2012. … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Employment
Tagged Economy, employment, jobs, Lee Adler, unemployment, wall street examiner
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European Banking Union Proposal
The sovereign debt crisis has revealed severe flaws in the EU internal market. Common monetary policy has not been accompanied by the transfer of authority to supervise banks and risks of banks and states have become dangerously intertwined. This column summarises the proposal of the German Council of Economic Experts for a full banking union which aim at correcting these deficits. Continue reading
Why Financial Repression Will Fail
The author – Ron Hera – argues that the financial repression will fail eventually. Financial repression occurs when governments channel funds into their own sovereign bonds in order to reduce debt levels through mechanisms such as directed lending, caps on interest rates, capital controls, debt monetization, or by other means. To establish his points, Mr. Hera catches readers’ attention towards “The Liquidation of Government Debt”, “Crisis and Consequence” and many other facts. Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Eurozone
Tagged capital controls, Carmen M. Reinhart, Central banks, debt crisis, Debt monetization, Economy, Eurozone, Federal Reserve, financial repression, Great Depression, inflation, recession, recovery, ron hera, stock market, weekly economic review
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The Idea That US Consumer Is Resilient Is A Myth
America is in verge of experiencing another disastrous bubble in some segment of its economy, argues Lee Adler. Studying the data, Mr. Adler concludes that the Americans are spending less. According to him, the upcoming bubble is unlikely to do any good to the economy just as the last one. As a result, the economic downturn will affect the standard of living in the country.
The Declining Significance of Wine Tastings
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction The Judgment of Paris in 1976, chronicled in George Taber’s book, was the first in a series of widely reported blind tastings. Below, I summarize the findings from those tastings (and my own … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Uncategorized, wine
Tagged Elliott Morss, Lennox tasting, Paris tasting, Princeton tasting, wine, wine tasting
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Jobless Recoveries and the Disappearance of Routine Occupations
The US economy is recovering. But what explains the stubborn malaise in its labour market? This column argues that future recovery from recession will likely be jobless because technological advances and mechanisation now enable troubled firms to shed middle-income jobs in favour of machines and automation. If these jobs are not recouped during subsequent economic recovery, future recoveries may well remain jobless. Continue reading
The Employment and GDP Relationship
The author – Menzie Chinn – evaluates the latest GDP release to conclude whether job creation is less than what would be expected, given the growth in real GDP. Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Employment, GDP
Tagged employment, GDP, Menzie Chinn
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Too Big to Fail is a Red Herring
TARP Revisited: Banks “Too Large to Fail”- A Red Herring by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Remember the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)? Initiated in 2008 to bail out the US financial system, it is still around. In this, … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News
Tagged Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance, TARP, Troubled Asset Relief Program
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The Great Debate©: Did Fannie and Freddie Cause the Great Financial Crisis?
The Neville Awards Case Against Fannie and Freddie Written by John Lounsbury The Neville Awards is a website that has collected published media reports and opinion about the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in creating the Great Financial … Continue reading
What Have Economists Ever Done for Us?
by Andrew G. Haldane, Executive Director Bank of England, from Vox EU There is a long list of culprits when it comes to assigning blame for the financial crisis. At least in this instance, failure has just as many parents … Continue reading
Credit to Small Enterprises: The silent crisis
by Jayati Ghosh, from Triple Crisis Blog A new BIS working paper by Cecchetti and Kharroubi makes a point that is becoming more widely known, especially after the continuing financial crises experienced globally since 2008. This is that the level … Continue reading
