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Category Archives: Leading Indicators
April 2013 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Continuing Economic Expansion
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.6% in April to 95.0 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up, and one month is not a trend. This … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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March 2013 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Slowing Economic Growth
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in March to 94.7 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up, and one month is not a trend. This … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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February 2013 Leading Economic Index Continues to Forecast Economic Expansion
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5% in February to 94.8 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value continues to slowly trend up. This index is designed to forecast the economy … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
1 Comment
January 2013 Leading Economic Index Points to a Slow Economic Expansion
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.2% in January to 94.1 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up. This index is designed to forecast the economy … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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December 2012 Leading Economic Index Suggests Economic Growth Might Improve
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5% in December to 93.9 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been in a tight range for most of 2012 until this growth … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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Business Cycle Forecasting: The First-Rate Results of Robert F. Dieli
by Jeff Miller This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, ECRI WLI, Economics, economic predictions
Tagged business cycle, Economy, ECRI, Federal Reserve, GDP, Jeff Miller, recession, recovery, Robert F. Dieli
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November 2012 Leading Economic Index Projects Weak Growth
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2% in November to 95.8 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been in a tight range for most of 2012 implying growth is … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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October 2012 Leading Economic Index Rises Slightly
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.2% in October to 96.0 (2004 = 100). Please note this improvement is based on revised values for September which were originally stated at 95.9 … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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September 2012 Leading Economic Index Forecasting a Weak Economy
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.6% in September to 95.9 (2004 = 100). Please note this improvement is based on revised values for August which were originally stated at 95.7 … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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August 2012 Leading Economic Index Softens
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in August to 95.7 (2004 = 100). This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance – and is still forecasting … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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July 2012 Leading Economic Index Recovers Projecting Economic Growth
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. grew 0.3% in July (reversing last month’s decline) to 95.8 (2004 = 100). This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in advance. The … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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June 2012 Leading Economic Indicator Forecasting Softening Economy
Written by Steven Hansen Warning: This post contains more soft economic forecast news. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3% in June to 95.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in May. This index … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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Can ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index be Trusted?
By Georg Vrba, P.E., Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com [Editor’s Note: In forecasting the economy, no proven dynamic forecasting model exists. Econintersect has a benign opinion of leading indices – and views them like ground hogs – a concoction of logical and illogical … Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI
Tagged Conference Board, Economy, ECRI, Georg Vrba, index, leading, WLI
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May 2012 Leading Economic Indicator Forecasts No Downturn In 2012
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in April to 95.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in April. This index is designed to forecast the economy six months in … Continue reading
Posted in LEI
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
2 Comments
Economy Continues to Grow Under the Shadow of Recession
Written by Steven Hansen This past week I have continued to ponder my friend Lakshman Achuthan’s renewed recession call where he stated: For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the … Continue reading
Posted in ECRI WLI, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged Economy, ECRI, Lakshman Achuthan, recession, Steven Hansen, unemployment, weekly economic summary, weekly review
2 Comments
Leading Economic Indicator Falters in April 2012
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1% in April to 95.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3% increase in March, and a 0.7% increase in February. The market was expecting an … Continue reading
Posted in LEI
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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Leading Economic Indicator Improves in March 2012
Written by Steven Hansen This is the fourth month of the “new and improving” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and might prove to be a viable real time long range forecasting tool. Only in hindsight years from now … Continue reading
Posted in LEI
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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February 2012 LEI Says Economy Will Improve At Least Through Summer
Written by Steven Hansen This is the third month of the “new and improving” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and might end up being a very viable real time long range forecasting tool. The Conference Board Leading Economic … Continue reading
Posted in LEI
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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January 2012 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Improving Economy
This is the second month of the “new” Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board, and after a month of review this index appears to be a significant tool useful for long-range outlook economic forecasts. The Conference Board Leading Economic … Continue reading
Posted in LEI
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
4 Comments
The New Conference Board LEI: First Look
by Guest Author Dwaine van Vuuren, PowerStocks Investment Research, cross posted from Advisor Perspectives, dshort.com The much anticipated Conference Board LEI revision is out. Many people were fearing that the removal of M2 from the composite would plunge it into … Continue reading
Posted in LEI
Tagged Advisor Perspectives, Conference Board, dshort.com, Dwaine van Vuuren, Keading Economic Indiator, LEI, LEI revision, recession
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