Econintersect Analysis Blog
Category Archives: economic predictions
by Dwaine van Vuuren Reposted from Recession Alert with written permission. The following charts and text are an extraction from our monthly Global Recession Report, one of 3 weekly and 5 monthly reports we issue 17 times each month for … Continue reading
by Jeff Miller This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written. It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions. To get the full benefit, I urge … Continue reading
by Guest Author Dwaine van Vuuren Note: This article is cross-posted with Advisor Perspectives d/short.com Perma-bears are bombarding us with alarm bells, sounding the doom of the US economy. We find ourselves in yet another “summer slowdown scare,” for the … Continue reading
by Guest Author Russ Winter, Winter Watch at The Wall Street Examiner The latest container shipments into the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach confirm that China (and Asia) is no longer nearly as much in the game. Inbound … Continue reading
Could 2012 Surprise to the Upside? by Guest Author John Slater, Capital Matters In January we are trained to predict the likely course of the coming year and more often than not we get it wrong. This year virtually everyone … Continue reading
by Jeff Miller Since last May I have been reviewing the record of those who forecast the business cycle. I developed a stringent list of requirements, “Jeff’s Acid Test,” and I frequently invited nominations. Here were the stated requirements: Openness … Continue reading
by Jeff Miller For investors who believe that stocks eventually reflect the fundamental strength of the companies, understanding the business cycle is crucial. Since popular sentiment and stock prices are often excessively negative about economic prospects, there is great opportunity … Continue reading
by Guest Author Andrew Butter
The essential theory of BubbleOmix is that Ying follows Yang or in other words What Goes-Around Comes Around.
Putting aside all the doom and gloom about the recently released unemployment figures, there may be a silver line…tarnished but silver all the same.
The important number is employment, that’s the demand side of the equation which is broadly independent of the supply side. Companies (and the government too but they are never a good marker for free-enterprise), look to buy services, The fact that there may be a lot of unemployed (and unemployable) people doesn’t change the numbers of jobs on offer; it just changes the wages the jobs pay…slightly. Continue reading
by Guest Author Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives Larry Summers (left) and Paul Krugman (right) may share ideological leanings, but they disagree sharply about our economic prospects. Both agree that political gridlock is responsible for the failure to grow our economy, … Continue reading
by Guest Author Art Patten – Bio end of article. Editor’s Preamble Economist Diane Macunovich has studied age structure and its many effects on individuals, economies, and societies intensively – and is the author of Birth Quake. This interview was … Continue reading