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Category Archives: macroeconomics
Japan: Exporting Deflation
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause and consequences, and silence by their authority the interested … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, Japan, Trade Data, macroeconomics, money, money and banking, stock markets
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, exports, GDP, industrial production, inflation, Japan, John Mauldin, recovery, trade balance
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Economic Zeitgeist
The Ideology to End Ideologies – A Response to Corey Robin on Nietzsche, Hayek, Mises, and Marginalism by Philip Pilkington This article was first published by Naked Capitalism (May 13, 2013) Editor’s Note: Econintersect considers this a fundamentally important discussion … Continue reading
Self-defeating Austerity Shocks
by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov, Voxeu.org This article was originally published by Voxeu.org (May 3, 2013) Europe’s austerity-first approach has triggered research-based efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of debt-reduction strategies. This column, based on a US empirical study, suggests … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fuad Hasanov, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery, Reda Cherif
1 Comment
Retail Sales Stay Right on Trend but Economists Get It Wrong Again
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Retail sales grew modestly and on trend in April. There was no evidence of either a slowing economy or one that is overheating and about to cause conventional inflation measures to move higher. At … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Retail & Business Sales, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Economy, Federal Reserve, gasoline, GDP, Lee Adler, retail sales, trade balance
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Housing Smoke and Mirrors (5) – “Zombie Fed”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4), it was suggested that the bad eggs in the 2005 and 2009 Mortgage Vintages were hatching; and creating a growing systemic threat. Click to enlarge The Federal Reserve and … Continue reading
Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
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The Liquidity Trap In the IS/MY Model (“Sitges Equation”)
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 I have recently built a small model which builds on the “Sitges” balance of payments identity. “Sitges” – originally a little town close to Barcelona – helps me to remember that the change in debt of … Continue reading
Posted in Government, Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, government spending, inflation
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Payrolls Gain But QE Has No Impact On Growth Rate
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 165,000 in April nonfarm payrolls, beating the consensus estimates of 140,000 to 155,000 from surveys of economists by mainstream media organizations. Surprise, surprise (not) … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Personal Income and Consumption, Taxation, macroeconomics
Tagged BLS, Economy, employment, energy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Savings and Investment: Sorting Out Confusion Over Definitions
A Bit More on Savings and Investment by Steve Randy Waldman, Interfluidity.com Steve Roth (1, 2), Scott Sumner (1, 2, 3), Bill Woolsey, and Matt Yglesias have been debating questions of saving versus investment and paradoxen of thrift. See also … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Taxation, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, GDP, inflation, private savings, recovery, savings and investment, Steve randy Waldman
2 Comments
Public Debt and Economic Growth, One More Time
by Ugo Panizza and Andrea F Presbitero This post was originally published by Voxeu.org The very public Rogoff-Reinhart kerfuffle has focused on what is not true. This column reviews the evidence on what is true. It suggests that the debt-growth … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Andrea F Presbitero, economic development, economic growth, Economy, GDP, public debt, Ugo Panizza
1 Comment
The Cashless Society
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline But Mousie, thou art [not alone], In proving foresight may be vain: The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men Gang aft agley, An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain, For promis’d joy! … Continue reading
Posted in GDP, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, John Mauldin, monetary policy, money
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That German Miracle…
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Germany … the miracle economy of Europe:
Posted in Eurozone, GDP, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Constantin Gurdgiev, Economy, GDP, Germany, IMF, ppp
2 Comments
Understanding Causation: Debt and Growth
Debt-to-GDP Ratios and Growth: Country Heterogeneity and Reverse Causation, the Case of Japan (Ultra Wonky) by Matthew Berg and Brian Hartley, New Economic Perspectives Originally posted at New Economic Perspectives, 29 April 2013 Summary We find that the correlation between … Continue reading
Terminal Velocity (6) Update – “Flying Blind, On Fumes, With No Pilot”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Terminal Velocity (4)[i], the possibility and conditions precedent for the “Helicopter” to land at Jackson Hole were discussed. The specific landing conditions were identified in Terminal Velocity (5). These conditions were observed as a … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Adam Whitehead, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, home sales, housing, inflation, recession, recovery
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Which Comes First: Good Governance or Development?
by Edvin Arnby Machata This article was originally published by Institute for Advanced Development Studies with spelling of the author’s name corrected in this update. The international development community has for almost two decades focused on improving governance as a … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, macroeconomics
Tagged Economy, education, Edvin Arnby Machata, GDP, governance, international data
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Making The Case Against Austerity
by Stephanie Kelton This article was originally published in New Economic Perspectives Neil Irwin at Wonkblog has a new post up: The Deficit is Falling Fast. Can Washington Accept Victory? He quotes John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute, who says, … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, Taxation, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, health care, inflation, recession, recovery, Stephanie Kelton
3 Comments
Hume on Microfoundations of Macroeconomics
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 So-called micro-foundations of macroeconomic models means that agents in the model always use some sort of optimization given the state of variables in the economy. A case in point is the consumption function. Keynesian normally say … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Personal Income and Consumption, macroeconomics
Tagged Dirk Ehnts, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, unemployment
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Reinhart. Rogoff. Wrong.
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 This is a major scandal of economists finding a result which does not hold under closer scrutiny. Back in 2010, which is just the year that European austerity policies were put into place, the authors published … Continue reading
Posted in Government, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recession, Reinhart, Rogoff, unemployment
3 Comments
Why Doesn’t IMF Track Inflation for the Eurozone?
IMF Says Inflation Likely to Remain Stable – What About the Eurozone? by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 The latest IMF Survey has this to say: Inflation barely budged during Great Recession despite rising unemployment Independent central banks reduce risk that policies … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Dirk Ehnts, ECB, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recovery
1 Comment
Comparing Unemployment During the Great Depression and the Great Recession
by William K. Black, New Economic Perspectives Barry Eichengreen’s and Tim Hatton’s January 1988 paper entitled “Interwar Unemployment in International Perspective” is a useful starting point for any effort to compare unemployment during the Great Depression and the Great Recession. … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Employment, Eurozone, UK, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, recession, recovery, unemployment, William K. Black
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