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Category Archives: GDP
Evolving Views on Fiscal Multipliers
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com This article was originally published at Econbrowser. Context relevant estimates suggest larger, not smaller, fiscal multipliers. In its newly released Budget and Economic Outlook, the CBO has published new estimates of potential GDP. In conjunction with … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, GDP, Government, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, Menzie Chinn
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ISM Purchasing Managers New Orders Index In Troubling Trends
ISM Purchasing Managers New Orders Index In Troubling Trends in Both Manufacturing and Services by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The ISM Purchasing Managers Index data on new orders for the manufacturing and non manufacturing sectors of the economy shows … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Economic Indicators (USA), GDP, ISM Surveys
Tagged ISM, Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner
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Initial Unemployment Claims Increase, But Trend of Improvement Is Intact
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner This post is excerpted from the permanent Employment Charts page, which includes numerous additional charts and analysis on key employment metrics. The Labor Department reported that the seasonally adjusted (SA) representation of first time claims for unemployment … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Government
Tagged Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, wall street examiner
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Tradable Goods and Employment Futures
Written by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction In my recent article on manufacturing, I pointed out that the vast majority of job losses in the last 50 years were the result of technology gains rather than foreign competition. I … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Employment, GDP, Trade Data
Tagged Economy, Elliott Morss, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, productivity, trade balance
1 Comment
January Job Gains Were Right On Trend, But Not Enough To Shrink Unemployment and Stop Fed Printing
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner This post is excerpted from the permanent Employment Charts page, which includes numerous additional charts and analysis on key employment metrics. The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 157,000 in January nonfarm … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, US Treasury
Tagged Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, Lee Adler, unemployment
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GDP -0.14% 4Q Averages Out 3Q “Over-Achievement”
January 30, 2013 – BEA Reports 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Contracting at -0.14% Annual Rate – But Not All is Negative by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their first (or “advance”) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth … Continue reading
Advance Estimate 4Q2012 GDP Is Economic Contraction of 0.1%
Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen The advance estimate of fourth quarter 2013 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is negative 0.1%. The market expected the advance estimate 4Q2012 GDP at +0.1% to 1.0%. Government spending and exports contracted, but … Continue reading
Energy and the End of Growth
by Michael Edesess, AdvisorPerspectives.com Is economic growth coming to an end? That’s been a hot topic of discussion recently (including in this publication), thanks to a paper by Northwestern University economist Robert J. Gordon, Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? It … Continue reading
Posted in Energy, GDP, economic predictions
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, fossil fuels, fossil fuels and growth, GDP, Michael Edesess
1 Comment
How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com The debt ceiling and implications of: “We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown.” and more recently “I think it is possible that we would shut down the government to make … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, GDP, Government, US Treasury
Tagged debt ceiling, Economy, federal deficit, Federal Reserve, GDP, government shutdown, Menzie Chinn
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The U.S. Deficit/Debt Problem: A Longer-Run Perspective
by Daniel L. Thornton, Research, St. Louis Federal Reserve The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100 percent of gross domestic product. Given that a significant amount of this debt is the result of governmental efforts to mitigate the effects of … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, GDP, Taxation, macroeconomics
Tagged Daniel L. Thornton, debt crisis, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation
1 Comment
Beneath the Headline Numbers, December Retail Sales Worst in 20 Years
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Retail Sales rose by 0.5% in December (month to month) and were up 4.7% annually, according to the Commerce Department’s December Advance Retail Sales Report released last week. Those are seasonally adjusted idealized estimates. … Continue reading
Posted in GDP, Retail & Business Sales
Tagged Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, trade balance
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Apparently Boffo Jobless Claims Really Were Good, And Right On Trend
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner This report is an excerpt from the Permanent Employment Charts page, where you can find more charts on the claims data and various other employment measures. The Labor Department reported that the seasonally adjusted (SA) … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, GDP
Tagged employment, GDP, initial unemployment claims, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment, weekly initial unemployment claims
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Recognizing the Need for Economic Adjustment
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six percent, it … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, China, GDP
Tagged China, Economy, GDP, michael pettis
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Initial Claims Decline 14.3% vs. Same Week 2012, Continuing Improving Trend
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Charts page, updated when new data becomes available. Also updated today JOLTS and Average Weekly and Hourly Earnings and Hours Worked. The Labor Department reported that … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, GDP, economic predictions
Tagged employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, initial unemployment claims, Lee Adler, recession, recovery
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Some Talk: The Biased Base of Basel
by Takeo Hoshi, Voxeu.org Implementation of Basel III in the US Will Bring Back the Regulatory Arbitrage Problems under Basel I Rejigging financial regulation is in vogue. But, in the world of international finance, how well do different regulatory systems … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Economics, GDP, economic predictions
Tagged Basel III, Economy, Federal Reserve, Takeo Hoshi
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Q4 2012 Global Risk Analysis from BBVA
by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Editor’s note: Global Economic Intersection welcomes Dr. Gurdgiev as a guest author. Constantin is an “embedded economist” in the Irish front lines, lecturing at Trinity College, Dublin. He brings us an insider’s view of what … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Eurozone, GDP, macroeconomics, stock markets
Tagged bbva, Constantin Gurdgiev, GDP, global risk
1 Comment
Non Farm Payrolls Does Not Change the Economic Picture
Non Farm Payrolls Give Fed No Reason To End QE, In Spite of Its Attempt To Scare Speculators Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 155,000 in December nonfarm payrolls. While the … Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Economic Indicators (USA), GDP
Tagged Census Bureau, Economy, Federal Reserve, Lee Adler
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Central Banks Can Phase in Nominal GDP Targets without Losing the Inflation Anchor
by Jeffrey Frankel, Jeff Frankel’s Weblog The time is right for the world’s major central banks to reconsider the framework they use in conducting monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are grappling with sustained economic … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Eurozone, Federal Reserve, GDP, money
Tagged ECB, Economy, GDP, inflation, Jeffrey Fraenkel
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The New Era of Oil Renaissance
by EconMatters In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that … Continue reading
Posted in China, Commodities, Energy, GDP, Government
Tagged EconMatters, Economy, GDP, industrial production, OIL, trade balance
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The Sources of Unemployment
by Lindsey Grant, Negative Population Growth, Inc. If over the past three decades the United States had deliberately set out to create unemployment, it could hardly have done a more thorough job. The sources of the problem lie in our … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Education, Employment, GDP, macroeconomics
Tagged Economy, employment, Lindsey Grant, recession, recovery
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