Author Archives: Rick Davis

BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate Once Again to 3.09%

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their third (and “final“) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 3.09% annualized rate, an … Continue reading

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Holiday Consumer Activities

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute Earlier we presented a chart that attempted to quantify the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers. We did that by comparing this year’s behavior with … Continue reading

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BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate to 2.67%

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.67% annualized rate, an upward revision … Continue reading

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Update on Post-Sandy Condition and Election in America

November 26, 2012 – Quick Update on the Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues: by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute Earlier this month we reviewed the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior … Continue reading

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Sandy and Election Day Blues

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute At the Consumer Metrics Institute we are fortunate to have daily consumer tracking data that provides a nearly real-time window into the impact of natural, cultural and political events on the US economy. In … Continue reading

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GDP Report: Improving Growth or Continued Weakness?

by Rick Davis In their first (“Advance”) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.02% annualized rate, some 0.76% higher than for … Continue reading

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Conflicting Consumer Data

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute At the Consumer Metrics Institute our mission has been to analyze changes in on-line consumer behavior for early signals about the macro-economic health of the United States. So it makes sense that we are … Continue reading

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2Q 2012 GDP Revised Down: The Details

by Rick Davis In their second and “final” revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.26%, down about a half … Continue reading

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GDP: Little Changed at 1.73%

by Rick Davis In their first revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.73%, up 0.19% from their initial estimate … Continue reading

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CMI Weighted Composite Continues Plunge

by Rick Davis The year-over-year data in our Weighted Composite Index has continued a spectacular deterioration over the past month: Click on graph for larger image.

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2Q 2012 GDP: Economy Slowing

by Rick Davis In their first estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.54%, down nearly a half percent from the (revised) 1.97% … Continue reading

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1Q 2012 GDP: Minor Changes in Third Estimate

by Rick Davis In their third estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) left the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth unchanged at 1.88%, which is still more than a percent below the … Continue reading

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Consumer Contribution to GDP is Fading

by Rick Davis We have often commented about the disparity between shrinking per capita disposable income (which is contracting at an annualized -0.22% rate) and the BEA’s reported growth in consumer spending (reportedly growing at an annualized +1.91% rate). Assuming … Continue reading

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Government and Consumer Drag on GDP

by Rick Davis In their second estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth to 1.88% (down about a third of a percent from the 2.20% … Continue reading

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GDP Slows During 1Q 2012

by Rick Davis In their “advanced” estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.20%, down more than three-quarters of a percent from the … Continue reading

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GDP Number Remains Good, Components Shaky

by Rick Davis In their “final” revision of their estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.97%, down a mere 0.01 percent from … Continue reading

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4Q 2012 GDP Revision: Modest Improvement

by Rick Davis In their first revision of their estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of economic growth was 2.98%, up about a quarter of a percent from … Continue reading

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4Q 2011 GDP: Seriously Mixed Signals

by Rick Davis In their “Advance” estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of economic growth had risen to 2.75%, up slightly less than one percent from their “final” … Continue reading

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Taking a Closer Look at Mixed Signals

by Rick Davis For those of us who track the macro-econometric behavior of consumers, the past six or seven months have been (at best) challenging. Just teasing out a “macro” behavior has been difficult, with wildly conflicting signals proving to … Continue reading

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Happy New Year? Not in GDP Numbers

by Rick Davis In their third estimate of the third quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the headline growth number downward once again to an annualized growth rate of 1.81%. This revision represents a drop in … Continue reading

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