Author Archives: Jeff Miller

About Jeff Miller

Jeff Miller has been a partner in New Arc Investments since 1997, managing investment partnerships and individual accounts. He has worked for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, where found anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developed new forecasting techniques. Jeff is a Public Policy analyst and formerly taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin. He analyzed many issues related to state tax policy and provided quantitative modeling which helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. Jeff writes at his blog, A Dash of Insight.

Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli

Posted on 13 January 2012 by Jeff Miller

by Jeff Miller Since last May I have been reviewing the record of those who forecast the business cycle. I developed a stringent list of requirements, “Jeff’s Acid Test,” and I frequently invited nominations. Here were the stated requirements: Openness … Continue reading →

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Evaluating Recession Forecasts: Read Critically

Posted on 12 January 2012 by Jeff Miller

by Jeff Miller For investors who believe that stocks eventually reflect the fundamental strength of the companies, understanding the business cycle is crucial. Since popular sentiment and stock prices are often excessively negative about economic prospects, there is great opportunity … Continue reading →

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Analyzing the Supercommittee

Posted on 18 August 2011 by Jeff Miller

There is an advantage to making sure that potential dissenters have a role in the process. It then becomes easier to sell the final deal to the entire legislative body. Continue reading →

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