Econintersect Analysis Blog
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet Asia / Pacific Europe Middle East / Africa Americas USA Government
Author Archives: admin
Terminal Velocity (9) – “Helicopter Take-off”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com From Terminal Velocity (3) – “The Pyramid Scheme”[i]: Reading between the lines, it is clear that the Fed intends to maintain a large balance sheet of assets for some time; even after interest rates have … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, money, money and banking
Tagged Adam Whitehead, BEA, China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recovery
Leave a comment
Japan: Exporting Deflation
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause and consequences, and silence by their authority the interested … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, Japan, Trade Data, macroeconomics, money, money and banking, stock markets
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, exports, GDP, industrial production, inflation, Japan, John Mauldin, recovery, trade balance
Leave a comment
Economic Zeitgeist
The Ideology to End Ideologies – A Response to Corey Robin on Nietzsche, Hayek, Mises, and Marginalism by Philip Pilkington This article was first published by Naked Capitalism (May 13, 2013) Editor’s Note: Econintersect considers this a fundamentally important discussion … Continue reading
Initial Claims Not Great but Not as Bad as Claimed
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The media exhibited much consternation today as economists’ consensus guess on first time unemployment claims turned out to be way too optimistic this week. That raised two questions in my mind. Was the number … Continue reading
Posted in Employment
Tagged dol, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
Leave a comment
Uncertainty, Liquidity Hoarding, and Financial Crises
Analysis from Liberty Street Economics Tanju Yorulmazer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York One of the most interesting phenomena marking the recent financial crisis was the disruptions in the interbank market, where banks borrow and lend reserves to each other. … Continue reading
Schizophrenic U.S. Housing Market
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (Part 6) “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com Click to enlarge We thought it would be amusing to start this discussion with the latest “Smoke … Continue reading
Self-defeating Austerity Shocks
by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov, Voxeu.org This article was originally published by Voxeu.org (May 3, 2013) Europe’s austerity-first approach has triggered research-based efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of debt-reduction strategies. This column, based on a US empirical study, suggests … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fuad Hasanov, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery, Reda Cherif
1 Comment
What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk?
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com Note from dshort: I’ve updated this commentary to include the latest labor force data in May’s release of the April employment report. Every Thursday I post an update on weekly unemployment claims shortly after the … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, GDP
Tagged Doug Short, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, recession, recovery, unemployment
3 Comments
Retail Sales Stay Right on Trend but Economists Get It Wrong Again
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Retail sales grew modestly and on trend in April. There was no evidence of either a slowing economy or one that is overheating and about to cause conventional inflation measures to move higher. At … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Retail & Business Sales, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Economy, Federal Reserve, gasoline, GDP, Lee Adler, retail sales, trade balance
Leave a comment
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (5) – “Zombie Fed”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4), it was suggested that the bad eggs in the 2005 and 2009 Mortgage Vintages were hatching; and creating a growing systemic threat. Click to enlarge The Federal Reserve and … Continue reading
Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
Leave a comment
US Consumers Keep Spending Despite Reduced Pay
by Warren Mosler This article was originally published by Mosler Economics (Apr. 29, 2013) This is the current thinking, but the pieces don’t add up? Hoping I’m being too negative here… Comments below:
The Liquidity Trap In the IS/MY Model (“Sitges Equation”)
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 I have recently built a small model which builds on the “Sitges” balance of payments identity. “Sitges” – originally a little town close to Barcelona – helps me to remember that the change in debt of … Continue reading
Posted in Government, Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, government spending, inflation
1 Comment
Bubbly Stock Prices Running Away From Improving Jobless Claims
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The trend toward fewer initial unemployment claims continued this week at a pace near the best levels of the past several years. However, spurred on by QE, bubbling stock prices are increasingly ahead of … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, stock markets
Tagged Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, unemployment
Leave a comment
Country Income Shares in PPP
by Jayati Ghosh, Triplecrisis.com The UNDP’s latest Human Development Report 2013 (entitled “The rise of the South”) has one particularly striking chart that it uses to make the point about the recent growing economic significance of some “emerging” nations. In … Continue reading
Posted in China, GDP, India, International Economic data, Personal Income and Consumption
Tagged Brazil, China, consumer confidence, Economy, GDP, global gdp, India, Jayati Ghosh, ppp
Leave a comment
Austerity and Growth Perspectives: Europe, the IMF, China, and the US
Written by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Over the last two decades, the trade-offs between more rapid economic growth and the need for governments to keep their financial houses in order has been a topic of worldwide debate. Controversy … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, GDP, International Economic data
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Elliott Morss, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery
1 Comment
More Bad News On Dying US Manufacturing
More Bad News On Dying US Manufacturing- Excise Taxes Drop, But Markets Have Reason To Party On by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner [While US tax collections on everything went gangbusters in April, absolutely through the roof, there was one … Continue reading
March Factory Order Rebound Doesn’t Change Dismal Trend
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner New factory orders (actual, adjusted for inflation and not seasonally adjusted), which is a broader measure than durable goods orders because it includes non-durables, dropped 3.3% on a year to year basis in March. … Continue reading
Stratfor: Nostalgia for NATO
by George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor Several years ago, I wrote a series of articles on a journey in Europe. It was intended both to be personal and to go beyond recent events or the abstract considerations of geopolitics. This … Continue reading
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4) – “The Zombie in the Room”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (3)[i] it was suggested that there were some anomalies, in the general pattern of improving mortgage delinquencies, that deserved closer scrutiny.
