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What We Read Today 13 November 2016

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).

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Topics today include:

  • Oil Execs Say Solar is a Money Loser

  • Goldman Sachs Evaluates Economic Implications of the Trump Agenda

  • Goldman Sachs Stock Shoots Up 17%

  • Animated History of Immigration into the U.S.

  • Could Donald Trump Save OPEC?

  • Clinton's Popular Vote Lead is Swelling

  • Popularity of Trump and Sanders Indicate a Possible Civilization-Threatening Collapse

  • Trump and Advisors Hedge on Major Campaign Pledges

  • Trump Has up to $1 Million Riding on Dakota Access Pipeline

  • Trump Targets Up To 3 Million Immigrants

  • So Far Trump Deportation Plans Mirror Obama's Record

  • Should Obama and Clinton Quiet Trump Protesters?

  • France Continues State of Emergency

  • Russia-Friendly Candidate Elected President in Bulgaria

  • Turkey Warns U.S. Travel May Not Be Safe

  • Iraq Retakes Ancient Assyrian City of Nimrud

  • New Zealand Hit with 7.8 Magnitude Earthquake

  • And More

Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world

Global

  • Donald Trump Could Be OPEC's New Best Friend (Bloomberg)  Trump's number one priority is to dismantle the "disastrous" Iran nuclear deal -- although his to-do list might have changed since saying that back in March. As luck would have it, the daily million barrels now coming from Iran is about the same size as the cut OPEC needs to make to erase the global oil production surplus.

opec.cuts.needed.2016.nov.11

U.S.

  • Clinton vs. Trump Popular Vote: Are There Still Uncounted Ballots? (Heavy)  Forget the 200,000 popular vote plurality for Hillary Clinton - as of Saturday, November 12 it had grown to more than 600,000 and will likely exceed 1 million by a wide margin.  The New York Times estimated on November 12 that there are 7 million uncounted ballots in the country.  California has more than 4 million of them - If they fall in the same pattern as the rest of the state, that would be 2.7 million for Clinton and 1.4 million for Trump.  It is possible that the popular vote plurality could approach 2 million.  Econintersect:  A constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College is a political impossibility as our forthcoming article will explain.

  • Why Trump-Sanders Phenomenon Signals an Oligarchy on the Brink of a Civilization-Threatening Collapse (Evonomics)  This article quotes Peter Drucker (1995):

“Every few hundred years in Western history there occurs a sharp transformation. Within a few short decades, society ─ its worldview, its basic values, its social and political structures, its key institutions ─ rearranges itself…Fifty years later, there is a new world, and people born then cannot even imagine the world in which their grandparents lived…We are currently living through such a time.”

  • Trump and advisers hedge on major pledges, including Obamacare and the wall (The Washington Post)  President-elect Donald Trump and key advisers in recent days have backed away from some of the most sweeping pledges that the Republican candidate made on the campaign trail, suggesting that his administration may not deliver on promises that were important to his most fervent supporters.  Trump built his campaign message around bold vows to, among other things, force Mexico to pay for a massive border wall, fully repeal the Affordable Care Act and ban Muslims from entering the United States. But in the days since his upset election victory, he or his advisers have suggested that those proposals and others may be subject to revision.

  • Trump's Personal Investments Ride on Completion of Dakota Access Pipeline (EcoWatch)  Trump has not spoken about the DAPL but holds stocks that are directly funding the Dakota Access Pipeline. According to Trump's financial disclosure forms, The Guardian reported that he has invested between $500,000 and $1 million in Energy Transfer Partners.

  • Trump election: Up to three million migrants 'to be targeted' (BBC News)  US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will deport or jail up to three million illegal migrants initially.  Those targeted would be migrants with criminal records, such as gang members and drug dealers, he told US broadcaster CBS in an interview.  Econintersect:  This sounds like a continuation of Obama policies.  According to Obama Has Deported More People Than Any Other President (ABC News):  Between 2009 and 2015 his administration has removed more than 2.5 million people through immigration orders, which doesn’t include the number of people who "self-deported" or were turned away and/or returned to their home country at the border by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

  • Kellyanne Conway: It’s up to Clinton, Obama to calm anti-Trump protesters (The Washington Post)  Kellyanne Conway, Donald Trump's former campaign manager, said it is incumbent upon Hillary Clinton, President Obama and other Democratic leaders to calm their supporters and encourage a peaceful transition of power amid anti-Trump demonstrations that have swept U.S. cities since Election Day.  Trump is “there for them. And he is going to be a president that listens and takes the counsel of many different people, including those from the other side of the aisle,” Conway told Chuck Todd on NBC's “Meet the Press” on Sunday. " . . . It's time really for President Obama and Secretary Clinton to say to these protesters, 'This man is our president.'”  Econintersect:  Clinton and Obama have clearly said exactly what Conway suggests they have not.  It is clear that the problem is that these protesters believe what Donald trump has said and only Trump can clarify that.  Are we going to continue to have leaders who claim that their shortcomings are not their fault, but are 'illusions' of their opponents?  See also Trump Advisers Urge Obama to Call Off ‘Professional’ Protesters (Bloomberg)

France

  • Paris attacks: France state of emergency to be extended - PM Valls (BBC News)  France's state of emergency imposed after last year's terror attacks in Paris is likely to be extended, Prime Minister Manuel Valls has told the BBC.  He said the measures were needed to protect democracy.  France is marking a year since militants from so-called Islamic State (IS) killed 130 people in gun and bomb attacks around the capital.

Bulgaria

  • Russia-friendly political novice wins Bulgaria presidential election: exit polls (Reuters)   Bulgarian Socialist ally Rumen Radev, a Russia-friendly newcomer to politics, won Sunday's presidential election by a wide margin, exit polls showed, prompting centre-right Prime Minister Boiko Borisov to pledge to resign.  Radev, 53, entered Bulgarian politics on a wave of discontent with the ruling center right's progress in combating corruption, disappointment with the European Union and concerns among voters over alienating an increasingly assertive Russia.  A former air force commander, Radev has argued Bulgaria needs to be pragmatic in balancing the requirements of its European Union and NATO memberships while seeking ways to benefit from a relationship with Moscow.

Turkey

  • Turkey Turns Tables With Warning U.S. May Be Unsafe for Tourists (Bloomberg)  Turkey’s Foreign Ministry issued a travel warning for the United States, citing dangers linked to protests and possible assaults by racists following the election of Donald Trump.  Turkey has more often been on the receiving end of such communiques over the last two years, a period when foreign tourists have been among those targeted by a series of terrorist attacks in major Turkish cities. It’s lashed out at the U.S. and other allies for issuing pronouncements about risks to their citizens on Turkish soil, with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying earlier this month that Istanbul and Ankara are just as safe as any U.S. state.

Iraq

  • Nimrud: Iraqi forces 'retake ancient city from IS' (BBC News)  Iraqi government forces say they have captured Nimrud, the site of an ancient Assyrian city overrun by Islamic State (IS) group militants two years ago.  In March 2015, officials and historians condemned IS for the destruction of the archaeological site, which dates back to the 13th Century BC.  The UN's cultural body described the act as a war crime.  IS says shrines and statues are "false idols" that have to be smashed.  Nimrud lies about 30km (20 miles) south-east of the major city of Mosul, which Iraqi government forces are attempting to take from IS.

New Zealand

  • New Zealand earthquake: Two dead following powerful tremor (BBC News)   Two people have died after a powerful magnitude-7.8 earthquake struck New Zealand's South Island.  Prime Minister John Key said further details were not yet known.  The US Geological Survey said it hit just after midnight (11:02 GMT on Sunday), some 95km (59 miles) from Christchurch.  A tsunami arrived about two hours later. Officials warned everyone along the eastern coast to head inland or for higher ground.  Earlier warnings of a wave up to 5 Meters (16 feet) were later scaled back to much less.

Other Scientific, Health, Political, Economics, and Business Items of Note - plus Miscellanea

  • Shell, Total CEOs Question Solar in Room Full of Solar Investors (Bloomberg)  When executives from some of the world’s biggest oil companies question the ability of solar energy to make money in a roomful of renewables investors, awkwardness ensues.  That’s what happened Thursday at the Energy for Tomorrow conference in Paris, where the chief executive officers of Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA said solar power isn’t profitable.  Investors from venture capital companies to developers were quick to defend their track records, and their balance sheets.  But Oil executives whose companies have solar investments reported that none of their solar companies are generating any cash.  Econintersect:  Reminder that Amazon got to be one of the world's largest retailers by "not making any money for many years", where "not making any money" meant deferring corporate earnings to build organic growth by plowing cash flows back into the business.  What the oil execs are arguing is that installations like the one below (of which there are many) are money losers.  That may or may not be true, but, if true, most likely money losers but economic enhancers like 19th-century railroads which built what became the 20th-century global powerhouse.

  • Goldman: "Economic Implications of the Trump Agenda" ( Calculated Risk)  Bill McBride offers a few excerpts from an analysis piece by Goldman Sachs economists Sven Jari Stehn and Alec Phillips.  Here are the first two:
    • President-elect Trump’s proposals, if enacted, would have significant implications for the US economic outlook over the next few years, some positive and some negative. The positive fiscal impulse from his tax reform and infrastructure proposals could provide a near-term boost to growth and, depending on the specifics, could have positive longer-run supply side effects.

    • However, other proposals could lead to new restrictions on foreign trade and immigration, which could have negative implications for growth, particularly over the longer term. ...

  • Big Goldman Sachs Rally (Twitter)  The candidate whose only son-in-law works for Goldman Sachs lost the election and Goldman stock jumped 17%.  Is this "liftoff" or "a peak"?

goldman.sachs.2014.2016.nov.11


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