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What We Read Today 09 November 2016

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).

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Topic today include:

  • Treasury Yields Jump Dramatically

  • Yield Curve Slopes Steepen

  • Dow Price Still Rising in 7-Year Trend Channel

  • Pollsters Suffer Huge Embarrassment

  • Clinton Says "Trump Deserves Chance to Lead"

  • GOP Makes Huge Gains at State Level

  • The Counties the Flipped the Country to Trump

  • Trump May Have Lost the Popular Vote

  • Trump Could Be the Fifth President to Hold Office Without Winning Popular Vote

  • Someday We Could Have a President Who Loses by More than 10 Million Votes

  • The EU is Threatened by Populist "Tsunami"

  • EU Telling Turkey Membership in Doubt

  • Putin Says Russia Ready to Deal With Trump

  • Mexico Will Struggle to Survive With Trump

  • And More

Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world

U.S.

  • Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment (The Hill)  Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night.  Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims — dismissed and mocked by the experts — turned out to be true.  Going into Election Day, a strong majority of pollsters and election modelers forecast that Democrat Hillary Clinton would coast to victory, with many predicting she would sweep the battlegrounds and win north of 300 electoral votes. CNN anchor Jake Tapper said:

“It’s going to put the polling industry out of business.  It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”

“Donald Trump is going to be our president.  We owe him an open mind and a chance to lead.  Last night, I congratulated Donald Trump and offered to work with him on behalf of our country. I hope that he will be a successful president for all Americans.” 

  • GOP makes big gains at the state level (The Hill)  Days ago, even some Republican strategists were predicting a civil war that would tear apart their party for years to come. By Wednesday morning, it became clear that the GOP holds nearly unprecedented control not only in Washington, but also in state capitals across the country.  Republicans expanded their ranks of governors, winning Democratic-held seats in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Missouri. The party also made gains in state executive offices and in legislatures across the country.  The results mean Republicans appear likely to have added to their already considerable power in the states, riding a wave of populism headed by President-elect Donald Trump.

  • The places that flipped and gave the country to Trump (CNBC)  Tuesday's presidential election resulted in a riveting series of surprises, as presumed Democratic strongholds including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania switched sides to propel Donald Trump to victory.  That national drama was playing out at the county level, too. Places that supported President Obama over Mitt Romney in the 2012 election switched their support to Trump — some with hefty margins.  A few places flipped from Republican to Democrat.

Click got larger image.
county.flips.2016.600x50

pres.popular.vote.google.2016.nov.09.4pm

  • List of United States presidential elections by popular vote margin (Wikipedia)  If Hillary Clinton's popular vote lead (see preceding article) holds up, 2016 will be the fifth presidential election where the popular vote winner was not elected president.  This may seem like a relatively unimportant factor when the popular vote pluralities are of the order of 200,000 to 600,000 as they have been for three of the four such elections before 2016, and is also the case this year.  But it is theoretically possible that a Candidate Losing The Popular Vote By 10 Million Could Become President.  And the margin could actually be significantly larger that 10 million with voter turn-outs above 60%.  The table below shows the closest popular vote election in U.S. history.

popular.vote.margins.closest

EU

  • After Trump and Brexit, populist tsunami threatens European mainstream (Reuters)   Back in May, when Donald's Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election seemed the remotest of possibilities, a senior European official took to Twitter before a G7 summit in Tokyo to warn of a "horror scenario".  Imagine, mused the official, if instead of Barack Obama, Francois Hollande, David Cameron and Matteo Renzi, next year's meeting of the club of rich nations included Trump, Marine Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo.  A month after Martin Selmayr, the head of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's cabinet made the comment, Britain shocked the world by voting to leave the European Union. Cameron stepped down as prime minister and Johnson - the former London mayor who helped swing Britons behind Brexit - became foreign minister.

Turkey

  • Turkey 'backsliding' in bid to join EU, says Commission (BBC News)  The European Commission has accused Turkey of "serious backsliding" in rights and the rule of law since a failed coup on 15 July.  An EU official said Turkey was not heading in a European direction, as he gave an annual appraisal of its progress towards EU membership.  The Turkish president challenged the EU to "make your final decision".  For days there has been a war of words, with Europe accused of failing to take terrorism in Turkey seriously.  And a Turkish minister rejected the latest appraisal as "not objective".

Russia

  • Putin says Russia ready to fully restore ties with U.S. (Reuters)   Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday Russia was ready to fully restore relations with the United States following the election of businessman Donald Trump as the new U.S. president.  Receiving credentials from new foreign ambassadors to Russia, Putin said he had heard Trump's campaign statements about improving ties with Moscow. He said Russia was ready do its part to achieve this but recognized it would not be easy.  Improved relations would benefit both Russia and the United States, he added.

Mexico

  • Mexico says will not pay for Trump wall, no action yet to ease peso plunge (Reuters)  Mexico said on Wednesday it will not pay for a border wall after Donald Trump's surprise U.S. presidential election win and officials held back from taking any action to support the peso despite the currency hitting lifetime lows overnight.  As Trump forged toward victory, the peso plunged 13% in its biggest fall since the Tequila Crisis devaluation 22 years ago, before paring losses to trade down 8.7% at 19.91 per dollar.  Trump's threats to amend the NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico, and to tax money sent home by migrants to pay for building a wall on the southern U.S. border, have made the peso particularly vulnerable to events in the U.S. presidential race.  Analyst Gabriela Siller of Mexican bank BASE said:

"Very hard times are coming to Mexico." 

Other Scientific, Health, Political, Economics, and Business Items of Note - plus Miscellanea

  • Treasury Yield Curve (U.S. Treasury Department)  The Treasury Yield Curve has steepened  dramatically with the election of Donald Trump.  On Monday and Tuesday, the slope (2-year to 10-year) was 100 bps.  Today (Wednesday), the slope is 120 bps.  The 1-month to 30-year slope has increased from 228 bps to 260 bps. These are huge 0ne-day moves.

yield.curve.2016.nov.07

yield.curve.2016.nov.09

djia.2003.2016.nov.08


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