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What We Read Today 08 November 2016

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).

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Topic today include:

  • Why Trump Could Not Bring Back Jobs if Elected

  • Automation, Not Foreign Labor, Has Decimated U.S. Auto Employment

  • The New York Times is Poster Child for Print Media Going Digital

  • The Pattern of Newspaper Presidential Endorsements has Been Turned Upside Down

  • Last Minute Election Forecasts

  • Why the South Matters in U.S. Elections

  • Changing Demographics are Changing the Presidential Race

  • Voters Report Problems

  • Clinton Just Collected 32,000 Votes That Will Not Be Counted (Trump Lost Some Too)

  • Six Ways Your Voting Rights Could Be Violated and What To Do About It

  • Increased U.S. Presence Will Be Needed to Secure Mosul

  • India Invalidates Large Bank Notes to Fight Crime

  • And More

Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world

U.S.

  • Who Will Win Today - Last Minute Presidental and Senate Race Forecasts (Econintersect)  Forecasts from Five Thirty Eight are the ones GEI has followed throughout the current campaign.  The forecasts as of early this morning in Early Bird Headlines are virtually unchanged this afternoon.  The forecasts favored Hillary Clinton with a 72% probability of election (Donald Trump 28%).  Seven of the ten closest states were leaning Clinton.  For Trump to be elected he would need to carry seven of them.  The forecast for the senate was 50:50 split, which would mean Democratic control is Clinton is president.  Real Clear Politics is forecasting a very narrow Clinton win and a 51 seat Republican Senate.  The New York Times is forecasting an 85% probability for a Clinton victory and a 50:50 senate seat split.

  • Four reasons why the South matters in the US election (The Conversation)  The "solid south" never was really that predictable and this article argues that it is even less so today.  While Florida, Georgia and North Carolina never were "Dixiecrat" states, increasing demographic diversity has now made them much more similar to the rest of the country.  OhOtherouthern states may be following that pattern in the coming years. 

  • Election Day: Changing U.S. demographics could determine the next president (The Washington Post)  As turnout appeared to surge in many battleground states Tuesday, leaders of both parties braced for election results that will be shaped by the nation’s changing demographics as well as an unconventional presidential race.  Democrats expressed confidence that increased voting by Hispanics as well as strong participation by African Americans, Asian Americans and young voters would provide Hillary Clinton with the margin of victory in several states. Republicans, however, said Donald Trump’s appeal among working class whites would allow him to wrest the Democratic-leaning Rust Belt away from her.

  • Election Day: Voters report long lines, intimidation and confusion in some parts of the country (The Washington Post)  As voters flooded polling places across the country on Election Day, some reported problems such as long lines, confusion and voter intimidation in states ranging from Texas to Pennsylvania.  While voting appears to be proceeding without any headaches in many locations, the wave of complaints Tuesday morning came as election observers say they expect a significant increase in the number of issues reported nationwide.  Voters in Florida, a key battleground, have reported multiple accounts of voters saying they have encountered aggressive, intimidating behavior, according to a nonpartisan group monitoring election issues nationwide.  Kristen Clarke, president of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said her group had received reports from about 80,000 voters since the beginning of early voting, and they expected that figure to reach 175,000 reports by the time the polls close. In 2012, that group received 90,000 calls total on Election Day.  Reports of voting machine problems have come in from Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina.  Reports of Polling places not opening on time have come in from New York and Massachusetts.  Complaints about confusion over identification requirements have come from Pennsylvania, Texas and D.C.. 

  • Hillary Clinton Wins But Votes Do Not Count (USA Today)  Guam, which has historically predicted election winner, has picked Clinton by a margin of 71.63% of the vote. Republican Donald Trump received 24.16% and Socialist candidate Emidio Soltysik (the only third-party candidate on the ballot) received  4.22%.  But the western Pacific U.S. Territory is not represented in the electoral college, so the 32,071 votes cast do not count.  (Econintersect:  Votes for president are not cast in any U.S. territory:  In addition to Guam that also includes American Samoa, American Virgin Islands and the 2.4 million voters in Puerto Rico.)  An interesting note:  Since the first straw poll was held in 1980, Guam has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election.

  • Report from Florida: voter fatigue meets campaign frenzy (The Conversation)  Florida has almost 11% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency and that has the voters of that state very campaign-weary after many weeks of campaign bombardment of the state.  Despite both parties’ money and best efforts, in Florida the race remains officially too close to call. A RealClearPolitics averaging of polls has Clinton by one point, at 47% to Trump’s 46%; the Tampa Bay Times announced that according to early voting data, Republicans had “a razor thin ballot advantage of 1,833 over Democrats”.

  • 6 ways your voting rights could be violated (Vox)  Short video describes common voter rights violations and how to react to counter them.

voting.rights.viol.video

Iraq

It is now clear that the substantial US military presence of at least 5,000 personnel is likely to increase still further, including 1,700 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division.

India

  • India invalidates large bank notes in crackdown on crime (The Washington Post)   In an ambitious move to crack down on illicit money, India announced on Tuesday that existing large-currency bills will no longer be valid, starting at midnight.  Citizens have 50 days to exchange their old bills for new ones. But banks will be closed on Wednesday, and ATMs will be closed until Friday.  Curbing the prevalence of illegal and unaccounted wealth was a key campaign pledge of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power two years ago.  Modi said in a televised address (a thousand Indian rupees is worth about $15):

“We have decided that currency notes of 500 and 1,000 Indian rupees will not be acceptable for transaction from midnight onwards.  In the last few years, the specter of corruption and black money has grown.  Have we ever thought about how the terrorists get their money? They are using fake currency. On the one hand, the threat of terrorism, on the other hand, the challenge posed by corruption and black money.”

Other Scientific, Health, Political, Economics and Business Items of Note - plus Miscellanea

  • The Times They Are A-Changin’  (Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture)  The world formerly dominated by print media has transformed to electronic media dominance.  Ritholtz has an infographic (from the Visual Capitalist) of the transformation of The New York Times which illustrates what has happened:

newspapre.pres.endorse.1980.2016.pt.1newspapre.pres.endorse.1980.2016.pt.2newspapre.pres.endorse.1980.2016.pt.2newspapre.pres.endorse.1980.2016.pt.3


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