Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every dayin the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).
G-20 Pledges to Reduce Excessive Imbalances in Global Economy (Bloomberg) Group of 20 leaders pledged to use all available tools to help prop up global growth that’s weaker than it should be while avoiding competitive currency devaluations. Monetary policy alone can’t lead to balanced growth, and member nations are determined to use all monetary, fiscal, structural tools, the G-20 said in its final communique Monday after two-day leaders summit in Hangzhou, China. It said the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will lead a "global forum" on steel overcapacity and identify uncooperative tax havens.
Saudi-Russia Output Talk Disappoints Oil-Market Bulls: Chart (Bloomberg) Brent crude prices surged as much as 5.5% as news broke that Saudi Arabia and Russia would make a joint-statement on the oil market at the G20 summit in China earlier today. But what began with the promise of a “significant” announcement disappointed the bulls. As the two nations stopped short of taking any concrete steps to limit output, prices fell back to near $48 a barrel, a more sedate 2% increase on the day.
White House Watch: Trump 40%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3% (Rassmussen) Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July. The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. See next article.
What if? There's still time for drama before Election Day (Associated Press, MSN News) What could go possibly go wrong? (Or right?) It's the Labor Day question that keeps presidential candidates up at night. Nine weeks from Election Day, the electoral math favors Democrat Hillary Clinton. But both Clinton and Republican rival Donald Trump know there are countless ways the trajectory of this uncommonly volatile presidential campaign still could shift in unexpected ways. A health scare. An inopportune remark. A blockbuster debate. A WikiLeaks bombshell. An extremist attack. Even without a wildcard like Trump in the mix, history shows there's no anticipating all the ways late developments can affect a race.
Brussels to Withhold Greek Bailout Money (Handelsblatt - subscription required) Hat tip to Yannis Koutsomitis. The European Union looks set to hold back further bailout money for Greece as the country fails to make good on its reform commitments (only 2 of 15 met). An E.U. diplomat told Handelsblatt that the Eurogroup of euro-zone finance ministers will halt making any further payments to Greece as part of its third bailout package. The euro-zone finance ministers approved a tranche totaling €10.3 billion ($11.5 billion) most recently in May. That was to be the first payment of the third bailout package from Brussels agreed last summer, which totals €86 billion and extends through the end of 2018. From that first tranche, however, only €7.5 billion has been disbursed. The remaining €2.8 billion was supposed to be paid in September.
China blames United States, journalists for Obama airport fiasco (Reuters) China on Monday leveled responsibility at the United States and journalists for a fracas at a Chinese airport, in which officials of both countries exchanged heated remarks as President Barack Obama disembarked from his aircraft. The comments by a foreign ministry spokeswoman were in response to questions whether China, which is hosting a G20 summit meeting in its eastern city of Hangzhou, intentionally failed to provide Obama's plane with a staircase, an event that has fueled speculation it was a diplomatic snub. Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing on Monday:
"I think if only the American group had respected the working arrangements first made with China then this wouldn't have occurred You saw that all the other country leaders all used the stairs that China provided. So why was it only the United States that didn't? These were the stairs the United States requested."
Other Scientific, Health, Political, Economics and Business Items of Note - plus Miscellanea
Scientists Anthony Samsel and Stephanie Seneff have just gotten the fifth peer reviewed paper on Glyphosate published. Its named “Glyphosate pathways to modern diseases V: Amino acid analogue of glycine in diverse proteins”. The interview on that has been covered in the previous blog.
The latest bombshell to come from Anthony Samsel is from the sixth paper, which is not yet published, but whose supporting data is already making waves – various popular vaccines are contaminated with glyphosate.
How? Well, vaccine makers sometimes use animal byproducts in vaccines, products such as chicken egg protein or gelatin that comes from bones. And if those vaccine makers are using animals that come out of factory farms, chances are they are fed GMO and glyphosate laced feed. If so, they would pick up Glyphosate into their system just as we humans do. Therefore, egg protein and gelatin made from these animals may also contain glyphosate, which in turn would then contaminate the vaccines that use these products. Finally, people, or animals, vaccinated with these products would have glyphosate directly injected into them, and will in due course have glyphosate initiating a cascade of diseases.
Tranquil, w/i restrained volatility(Salil Mehta, Statistical Ideas) SM has contributed to GEI. Here he shows that the current low volatility as a single month event does not necessarily indicate a market change in the near-term.
August 2016 saw the average closing price of volatility at only 12.4%, just qualifying for the bottom decile of this monthly statistic, going back a few decades. And the S&P changed only -0.1% for the month. The last time we had an outer-decile month for volatility was the two-month streak in 2014. There the daily June levels averaged 11.5%, while for July it was 12.3%. One can see all three of these months in red, on the bottom of the time series charts below. And what we show comports to the myriad previous analysis of volatility (examples are here, here, here, here, here, here), which is that the drastically-low volatility recently in the stock market may only slowly mean-revert but not necessarily lead straight away to ultra-high volatility.
The Ricardian windfall: David Ricardo and the absence of the equity-efficiency trade-off (Branko Milanovic, globalinequality) BM has contributed to GEI. David Ricardo is rightly famous (among other things) for being the father of functional income distribution (distribution between the three factors of production: land, labor and capital). Using the example of the Corn Laws in 18th century England, BM discusses how global trade reduces the dominance of landlords and initially increases the return to capital while leaving labor's return flat. But, Ricardo argued, with increased return to capital more will be saved and invested leading to economic growth. (Econintersect: Another supply-side, trickle down argument for increasing return to labor.) Growth would lead to improved prospertiy for all, which BM calls the "Ricardian Windfall". (Econintersect: But when savings grow and investment does not, this is a "wind that blows no good".)
Econintersect wants your comments,
data and opinion on the articles posted. As the internet is a
"war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its
defences against ease of commenting. We have joined with Livefyre
to manage our comment streams.
To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of
the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your
favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or
Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.
Econintersect Behind the Wall
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.
Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com